Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[libertpaulian]

Future President Cordray loses.

RIP The_Doctor

[libertpaulian]

LOL, I couldn't care less if Dems "underperform expectations" or not. They won the House. Therefore they won. Enjoy the "optics" circlejerk conservatives, I'll be enjoying killing the Trump/Republican agenda for at least 2 years.

LOL, exactly! The GOP can sit on their hands for the next two years. Their +2 in the Senate or whatever will be real useful when they can't pass a single bill!

No, but Clarence Thomas can retire next year.

[libertpaulian]

Yeah, Ohio is definitely going to be the toughest nut to crack of the Trump states.

[libertpaulian]

As I said back in June when Sanford lost the primary in SC-1, I'm not surprised the Democrats picked up the seat. The overall demographics here do not support that the Republicans are radically right winged, and many people I came across in my professional and personal life all said if Sanford had won, they'd have voted for him, but not Arrington. She won because GOP turnout in the primary was poor and only the radical base showed up.


If the GOP runs a competent candidate in 2020, I doubt Cunningham holds the seat, but I'm glad our district did the right thing and put Cunningham in Washington.

Isn't the Charleston area trending D?

[libertpaulian]

Why is the West notoriously horrible at counting votes on time?

[libertpaulian]

Looks like Nelson's requested recount has to be completed by Saturday at noon, barring a historic tabulation error there is no way a recount nets Nelson 34,000 votes. Scott has this

There are still a ton of absentees and provisionals.

[libertpaulian]

Ugh, the amount of races literally within like 0.5% is insane.

The Gina Ortiz Jones/Will Hurd race especially. She was *so* close

Can she ask for a recount?

[libertpaulian]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

[libertpaulian]

With Tester's survival, Dem House pickups in CA, WA, UT, and AZ, Wacky Jacky's defeat of UTDH, Nevada's having a Dem trifecta (not to mention a unanimous hold on the row offices!) and a nearly unanimous congressional delegation, and the very likely possibility of a Senator Sinema, I'd HATE to be a Republican west of the Great Plains right now.

Cory Gardner is very afraid right now.

If they call it for Sinema, Gardner should announce his retirement immediately.  If Arizona of all places elects a Dem to the Senate, Gardner is more DOA than Doug Jones.

I mean, you can't sugarcoat it.  Republicans got absolutely massacred in the West last night.  Herrera-Buetler and Hunter were the GOP's only bright spots.  Possibly one of Young Kim or Mimi Walters too, but that's about it.

[libertpaulian]

This board and twitter seem to be at odds regarding Arizona

Psephologists seem to think McSally will win by slight margin

Source?

[libertpaulian]

*One week ago*

 Karen Handel: Whew, that was a close election I squeaked out against Ossof last year. But I'm finally getting into the groove of this whole "Representative" thing. I've just put down a lease on a place here in DC for me and my family to live, I'm making friends and connections and I've found this nice little coffee shop. DC is starting to feel like home! I sure hope nothing happens that forces me to move back to Atlanta - I just forwarded all my subscriptions here!

Please tell me this is fake.

[libertpaulian]

If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020.

[libertpaulian]

Sinema's lead is a little too close for comfort right now.

[libertpaulian]

If Sinema wins this thing, Dems need to contest AZ for real in 2020.

Rep. Ruben Gallego has been rumored to be the favored candidate among Democrats.

I'm talking presidentially also.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/troykinsey/status/1060688002442293249?s=21

Dang, that's a huge discrepancy between Gillum and Nelson.  A couple months ago, we thought that Gillum would have been Nelson's political savior.

[libertpaulian]

McSally underperforming in a big way in the Pinal ballots that just dumped.

Wow, Pinal just came in, and Sinema still leads.

[libertpaulian]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

[libertpaulian]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

Is CA like AZ in which the "late earlies" tend to be left-leaning?

[libertpaulian]

Orange County, CA just updated their numbers.

CA-45:  Walters margin dropped from +3.2 to +2
CA-48:  Rouda's margin increased from +2 to +2.4

Gonna take another sec to crunch the new CA-39 numbers

What about Kim vs. Cisneros?

He just said he's working on it.

Kim netted 3 votes. Which is bad for her, because she got 54% of Tuesday ballots in the OC part of CA39.

Is CA like AZ in which the "late earlies" tend to be left-leaning?

Yes.

Wow.  If these trends hold, Calvert and Hunter would be the last SoCal Republicans standing.

[libertpaulian]

The next batch is supposed to favor McSally, it was R+10 and the final batch benefiting Sinema.

So, it's likely Sinema ekes it out?

[libertpaulian]

I don't give a crap who wins at this point...sick of hearing about Florida.

[libertpaulian]

Looking at the House results, Amash's 55-43 margin is pretty underwhelming.  I get that Stabenow and Whitmer were at the top of the ticket, but in a pretty conservative district like this, Amash should have performed way better.

Is his #NeverTrump stance costing him votes?

[libertpaulian]

Apache dropped. Sinema expands lead by 586-

https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1061002410582142976?s=21

that isnt a great margin, underpeforming her EDAY vote there by 20%

Weren't these batches supposed to be pro-McSally?  If so, that's a pretty good sign for Sinema.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035638751866880

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061035293350850560

Sinema did very well in that last Yuma update.  She got almost 60% of the votes.

And McSally is 53-44 in Yuma 0_0

To put those Yuma County figures in perspective:

Romney won this county 56-43-1 in 2012.
Trump won it 48-47-5.

So, while McSally outperformed Trump here, it wasn't by much.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1061035935721111552

This is supposed to be the pro-McSally motherload, right?