Clinton/Warren (D) vs. Trump/Webb (R)

[libertpaulian]

Best-case scenario for Trump:

Trump/Webb 292 EV
Clinton/Warren 246 EV

I'd give Trump NH and CO as well.

[libertpaulian]

The above posters are right. The only thing Webb could add is keep Indiana and Missouri in the GOP fold. He might make in roads in Ohio and maybe even swing over Virginia, maybe. But as far as helping Trump win Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's gotta be a joke.

Webb could be something of a map-expander for the Democrats, he appeals to certain elements of the Republican base. But he is certainly not going to put Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in play for the Republicans.

He's a Southerner.  He could help Trump keep FL, NC, and VA.  And like you said, maybe help Trump deliver OH.  Then, all Trump would need to do is win a tiny swing state like NH or IA.

[libertpaulian]

I'd give Trump NH and CO as well.

If Trump is winning NH against a CLINTON/WARREN ticket, he's winning in VT, MD and MA as well.

NH isn't a solid blue state like VT, lol.  It's a swing state that tilts slightly blue.

[libertpaulian]

The above posters are right. The only thing Webb could add is keep Indiana and Missouri in the GOP fold. He might make in roads in Ohio and maybe even swing over Virginia, maybe. But as far as helping Trump win Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's gotta be a joke.

Webb could be something of a map-expander for the Democrats, he appeals to certain elements of the Republican base. But he is certainly not going to put Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in play for the Republicans.

He's a Southerner.  He could help Trump keep FL, NC, and VA.  And like you said, maybe help Trump deliver OH.  Then, all Trump would need to do is win a tiny swing state like NH or IA.

You seem to be under the impression that just because some spits out a few "y'alls" and really digs into their "r's" Southerners will be willing to disregard their entire political history and toss a vote their way. Sectionalism and regional pride hasn't really been a significant issue for a long time.

Yes, Webb would help a bit in the South. But what little he does to help isn't going to counter everything that Trump has done to hurt.

I mean "Southerner" in a more broad sense.  I don't mean simply that he's from the same region and speaks with the same accent.  He can tap into the working class values that they used as a deciding factor in their votes, which is namely economic populism and pro-worker policies.

[libertpaulian]

NH isn't a solid blue state like VT, lol.  It's a swing state that tilts slightly blue.

When was the last time Republicans won a statewide race in NH? 2010? And before that, 2004? It's actually the least GOP-friendly New England state.  Clinton/Warren losing NH is as plausible as Trump winning Hawaii.

I never said that NH was a pure swing state like FL or OH.  However, despite its D-leaning tendencies, it leans more "swing" than it does in one partisan direction or the other.

Papi Bush lost it by a hair in 1992.  Clinton won it in 1996 mainly due to the economic boom and incumbency factor.  Bush the Lesser won it in 2000.  Kerry barely won it in 2004 due to anti-Iraq sentiments.  Obama won it in 2008 because of anti-GOP anger and the Great Recession.  Obama won it in 2012 because of 1) incumbency factor, and 2) the "War on Women" meme.  

VT votes D because the Democrats tend to match their personal values more than the GOP does.

[libertpaulian]

The above posters are right. The only thing Webb could add is keep Indiana and Missouri in the GOP fold. He might make in roads in Ohio and maybe even swing over Virginia, maybe. But as far as helping Trump win Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's gotta be a joke.

Webb could be something of a map-expander for the Democrats, he appeals to certain elements of the Republican base. But he is certainly not going to put Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in play for the Republicans.

He's a Southerner.  He could help Trump keep FL, NC, and VA.  And like you said, maybe help Trump deliver OH.  Then, all Trump would need to do is win a tiny swing state like NH or IA.

You seem to be under the impression that just because some spits out a few "y'alls" and really digs into their "r's" Southerners will be willing to disregard their entire political history and toss a vote their way. Sectionalism and regional pride hasn't really been a significant issue for a long time.

Yes, Webb would help a bit in the South. But what little he does to help isn't going to counter everything that Trump has done to hurt.

I mean "Southerner" in a more broad sense.  I don't mean simply that he's from the same region and speaks with the same accent.  He can tap into the working class values that they used as a deciding factor in their votes, which is namely economic populism and pro-worker policies.

Sure he could. But Trump is already doing that with the economic populism and his "hard on trade" stance. Webb appeals to a group that Trump already appeals to. In fact, he may even push some away. Despite his past Republican affiliation, Webb's senate record was quite Liberal.

Trump voters aren't your typical voters.  They're not voting for Trump the Republican because Rush Limbaugh or James Dobson or the Club for Growth told them to.  They're staunchly independent and vote for Trump probably despite the fact that he's running as a Republican, not because of it.

The ones who tend to vote Republican on a regular basis but hopped on the Trump Train would probably like Trump's controversial pick. 

[libertpaulian]

The above posters are right. The only thing Webb could add is keep Indiana and Missouri in the GOP fold. He might make in roads in Ohio and maybe even swing over Virginia, maybe. But as far as helping Trump win Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's gotta be a joke.

Webb could be something of a map-expander for the Democrats, he appeals to certain elements of the Republican base. But he is certainly not going to put Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in play for the Republicans.

He's a Southerner.  He could help Trump keep FL, NC, and VA.  And like you said, maybe help Trump deliver OH.  Then, all Trump would need to do is win a tiny swing state like NH or IA.

You seem to be under the impression that just because some spits out a few "y'alls" and really digs into their "r's" Southerners will be willing to disregard their entire political history and toss a vote their way. Sectionalism and regional pride hasn't really been a significant issue for a long time.

Yes, Webb would help a bit in the South. But what little he does to help isn't going to counter everything that Trump has done to hurt.

I mean "Southerner" in a more broad sense.  I don't mean simply that he's from the same region and speaks with the same accent.  He can tap into the working class values that they used as a deciding factor in their votes, which is namely economic populism and pro-worker policies.

Sure he could. But Trump is already doing that with the economic populism and his "hard on trade" stance. Webb appeals to a group that Trump already appeals to. In fact, he may even push some away. Despite his past Republican affiliation, Webb's senate record was quite Liberal.

Too liberal for National Review or Freedom Works?  Absolutely.

However, Webb is on average what many Southern Democrats in the 70s, 80s, and 90s were.  He was a 21st century version of Dale Bumpers, Ernest Fritz Hollings, or Lloyd Bentsen.

[libertpaulian]

The above posters are right. The only thing Webb could add is keep Indiana and Missouri in the GOP fold. He might make in roads in Ohio and maybe even swing over Virginia, maybe. But as far as helping Trump win Michigan and Pennsylvania? That's gotta be a joke.

Webb could be something of a map-expander for the Democrats, he appeals to certain elements of the Republican base. But he is certainly not going to put Democratic states like Pennsylvania and Michigan in play for the Republicans.

He's a Southerner.  He could help Trump keep FL, NC, and VA.  And like you said, maybe help Trump deliver OH.  Then, all Trump would need to do is win a tiny swing state like NH or IA.

You seem to be under the impression that just because some spits out a few "y'alls" and really digs into their "r's" Southerners will be willing to disregard their entire political history and toss a vote their way. Sectionalism and regional pride hasn't really been a significant issue for a long time.

Yes, Webb would help a bit in the South. But what little he does to help isn't going to counter everything that Trump has done to hurt.

I mean "Southerner" in a more broad sense.  I don't mean simply that he's from the same region and speaks with the same accent.  He can tap into the working class values that they used as a deciding factor in their votes, which is namely economic populism and pro-worker policies.

Sure he could. But Trump is already doing that with the economic populism and his "hard on trade" stance. Webb appeals to a group that Trump already appeals to. In fact, he may even push some away. Despite his past Republican affiliation, Webb's senate record was quite Liberal.

Too liberal for National Review or Freedom Works?  Absolutely.

However, Webb is on average what many Southern Democrats in the 70s, 80s, and 90s were.  He was a 21st century version of Dale Bumpers, Ernest Fritz Hollings, or Lloyd Bentsen.

Sure he was more conservative than your average Democrat, but that doesn't make him conservative enough to keep the hardcore socialcons in check. A good chunk of the Republican electorate would find no place in a Trump/Webb ticket, and they would subsequently abandon it.

That is true.  Trump has to get about 85%-90% of the #NeverTrump crowd on the Trump Train just to have a prayer of winning the general.  Picking an actual Democrat wouldn't be so wise.  I was just listing some of the benefits.

Maybe he could use Jim Webb as a campaign surrogate or something.

[libertpaulian]

Everyone if Webb actually had a following amongst these supposed conservative working class Democrats he would've been able to poll more than the margin of error in any poll. He is irrelevant. Totally and completely. He's also probably the third most responsible person for the passage of Obamacare (after the late Arlen Specter and Al Franken) so yeah, not exactly the best choice to win over disaffected conservatives.

He might be able to win over disaffected moderates who aren't too pleased with Hillary (you know, the wife of the guy that signed NAFTA) but want to keep their Obamacare plan. 

[libertpaulian]

Everyone if Webb actually had a following amongst these supposed conservative working class Democrats he would've been able to poll more than the margin of error in any poll. He is irrelevant. Totally and completely. He's also probably the third most responsible person for the passage of Obamacare (after the late Arlen Specter and Al Franken) so yeah, not exactly the best choice to win over disaffected conservatives.

He might be able to win over disaffected moderates who aren't too pleased with Hillary (you know, the wife of the guy that signed NAFTA) but want to keep their Obamacare plan. 

Well seeing as how: 1-Trump will still campaign on repealing Obamacare and 2-Webb supported free trade as a Senator, that wouldn't make much sense.

Unlike the Tea Party who just says "REPEAL OBAMACARE!", Trump says he wants to supplant Obamacare with a more effective plan.

[libertpaulian]

Everyone if Webb actually had a following amongst these supposed conservative working class Democrats he would've been able to poll more than the margin of error in any poll. He is irrelevant. Totally and completely. He's also probably the third most responsible person for the passage of Obamacare (after the late Arlen Specter and Al Franken) so yeah, not exactly the best choice to win over disaffected conservatives.

He might be able to win over disaffected moderates who aren't too pleased with Hillary (you know, the wife of the guy that signed NAFTA) but want to keep their Obamacare plan. 

Wasn't NAFTA supposed to hurt Hillary in Ohio? Oh, wait. She won Ohio (twice).

If she can win Ohio based on her "support" of NAFTA, then it's not going to be a big deal elsewhere since Ohio is THE quintessential swing state.

Ohioans may not like NAFTA, but they're not going to vote for a guy that's basically a Bolshevik version of Ron Paul.