An excellent insight!
There is a lot going on in the economy which is quite different from typical developents over the past fifty years.
Not picking on you, but since your opinion is widespread…
It should come as no surprise that consumers are deleveraging at the fastest pace in over 50 years during the worst recession in over 50 years. And since we knew since late last year that this was going to be a very bad recession, this is certainly NOT “an excellent insight", rather everyone and their dog should be responding in a big “DUH!”
My economic thesis in a nutshell: Since this recession was foretold by the same textbook behavioral pattern of indicators that every other recession going back into the 19th Century has given off, there is no reason to think a recovery from this recession won’t be foretold by the same pattern of those very same indicators that has foretold every recovery.
