PA-Mason Dixon: Good news for J.J. & Co.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obama - 47
McCain - 43

Dates conducted: Oct. 27-28. Error margin: 4 points.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/pennsylvania-hope-for-mccain/

a bridge too far

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Obama - 47
McCain - 43

if this is accurate, Obama is in trouble in PA:  leading by 4% with 10% undecided is cutting it very close since undecideds will break for McCain.  But, I don't expect this poll to be accurate.  My gut tells me Obama leads 50-44 with 6% undecided...but my gut is not polling anyone

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Kerry was leading Bush 48-46% around this time in 2004 according to Mason-Dixon. Obama is leading by 4, much better than +2. We know what the final results were.

and the undecideds are going to break the same way with Obama as with Kerry?   neither campaign believes that.

I am not saying this poll is accurate, but you're placing false hope in how the undecideds broke in 2004