Kerry expanding into Virginia

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

If Kerry wins VA, he'll be over 350 electoral votes anyway.  Bush will do better in VA than he does nationwide.  VA will not determine this election.

I think five states are going to tell the story of this election:

1st Tier - Bush must hold 2 of the 3: Ohio, Penn, and Florida

2nd Tier - if Bush holds 2 of 3 from Tier 1, then watch: NH & NM.  Winner of both wins election.

3rd Tier - if Bush holds 2 of 3 from Tier 1 and Tier 2 is split, then the lawyers will be brought in and it will get far uglier than 2000 and the election will probably be decided in the US House.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Vorlon,

I don't think NH being the only state flipping in 2004 is even possible.

Why not?

Other states will switch columns before NH.