Obama/Romney starts here

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

actually, Politico's map (minus AZ) is probably Mitt's ground floor - can't really see Mitt doing worse than 159 unless Obama pulls a cure for cancer out of his arse.

But, if everything goes to hell in a hand basket (recession, unemployment >10%, middle-east war sending gas prices >$5, etc...), Obama could be lucky to get 37 electoral votes.

...But, that's obviously not where the election stands today.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Yeah, Maryland is totally 'up in the air'... and all across New York City, people are chanting amongst themselves, 'Hope?  Nope!'

it's easy to come up with situations that lead to Obama losing NY. 

e.g.: Israel gets into a war with Iran, Obama refuses to engage the US in the war....the Jews suffer heavy chemical weapons attacks, the MB in Egypt (which Obama helped bring to power) throws it's support behind Iran and starts pouring troops into the Sinai, Iran closes Strait of Hormuz sending oil above $200/barrel, gas prices in the US spike to $10/gallon causing gas lines, US unemployment quickly spikes above 12%....etc, etc, etc.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

It's easy to come up with an equally probable situation where Romney loses some of those Politico blue states:

Unemployment falls to 3%...Osama bin Laden rises from the dead only to be captured and killed once again a day before the election, etc

outside of the realm of possibilities, but a ME war is a REAL possibility.

---

, Mitt Romney admits on live television that he will be guided in office by the "words of [his] Mormon gods"

I'm ignoring possible scandals since they are totally unpredictable, and probably unlikely.

so, without a scandal, it is extremely unlikely Romney does not win at least 158-159 electoral votes.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This thread isn't about worst-case scenarios... it's about where the race stands.

I understand that, I'm just saying Politico's map isn't that far-fetched - incumbent presidents face far more political risks than challengers do, simply because there's a lot more that can go wrong in 10 months than can go right.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Yeah... Obama losing CA, NY and MA?! The circumstances that bring that about are not just far-fetched... but frankly fricking terrifying.

then you haven't been paying attention to the news:  Iran's Al Qods Brigades are positioned to attack oil installations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, as well as shut down the Striat of Hormuz, if conflict breaks out (and Obama probably isn't the type to launch a preemptive full-fledge strike to take out that Iranian capability).

Now, chances of conflict between Iran and Israel (or the US) in 2012 may only be 10-25%...but 10-25% is NOT far fetched.