http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/10/07/obamas_re-election_chances_could_turn_on_one_key_indicator_111594.html---
basically, what I said a few days ago
...there is not going to be economic growth for the next 6 months and the UE rate will be increasing....that already baked into the cake and there's not anything anyone can do about it....so, unless you're envisioning blockbuster economic growth starting in June 2012 with job gains >300k from June 2012 through Oct 2012....there is NO WAY Obama can win this election unless the GOP nominee gets caught with a live boy in his bed.
Incumbents are owned by the undercurrents because incumbents are held accountable for the prevailing conditions of the country: Reagan’s landslide, who was tied in the polls in Nov ’83, was sealed by the undercurrents that were at work 12 months prior to the election…same with Bush41’s defeat…same with Cliinton’s reelection.
So, while Obama may get a few brownie points for admitting “Americans are not better off than they were four years ago”, he still has to follow that sentence with “we've been able to make steady progress to stabilize the economy”, because Obama understands that although he will be given a pass on the first 2.5-3.0 years, he will win reelection or be defeated based on his record over the final 12 months leading up to the election.
Fair or unfair, that’s the way the cookie crumbles for incumbents of the White House.
