MO-PPP: Obama leads Palin by 3; trails Huck by 7, Romney by 6, Gingrich by 1

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

more evidence Palin probably will flame out a lot quicker than people think

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

more evidence Palin probably will flame out a lot quicker than people think

I completely disagree.  Fact and reason have not slowed the Palin juggernaut one bit.  The more proof is shown she can't win, the more supportive her supporters become.  Recently, they have begun to make the comparison to Reagan.  At NRO, commenters to posts have said there is nothing different between Obama quitting the Senate to become president and Palin quitting the governorship to become a media star and then run for president.

She is the prohibative frontrunner.  Despite all of the gaffes, she is still a leader in national polls and she is the leader in Iowa and South Carolina.  Since she is going to skip New Hampshire, she needs to win the two states and she will be the nominee.  Trust me, she knows this and that's why she is running.  Because the core conservative base is so strongly for her, it's not much of a challenge for her.

Only a collapse by the current challengers and the arrival of a white knight can stop Palin.  My party is determined to win by losing.

1)   I think you’re underestimating the sophistication of the nomination process.  It usually forces voters to set aside their self pride and try on different suits to see which one best fits.
2)   There is no reason for an unbiased person to pick Palin over Pence once Pence becomes more well known.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

1)   I think you’re underestimating the sophistication of the nomination process.  It usually forces voters to set aside their self pride and try on different suits to see which one best fits.
2)   There is no reason for an unbiased person to pick Palin over Pence once Pence becomes more well known.

You just used a word that is contradictory to everything about Palin: sophistacation.  Nothing about her popularity or the strong support she recieves from the core base, Rush, Mark Levin, Hannity, or Laura Ingraham is sophisticated.  It is all about not being elite or a cut above the masses.  It is vulgar populism.  If sophistication ruled the day, Palin would be nowhere after quitting her job.

yoooooooooo - that's why I believe Palin will run out of oxygen - she's not sophisticated enough to make it through the primary process.  Her "you betcha's" ain't gonna seem so "flippin' fun" next to the other GOP contenders.  And the Rush's and Hannity's and Focus on the Family have NEVER had any sway with the GOP primary process. 

Palin is going to become Harriet Miers 2.0 - the GOP talking heads will talk her up, but the base will long for someone else once the process begins.  And the shift of perception may happen long before any votes are cast in Iowa.

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As for Pence, I like him as well, but how does he survive what will likely be a fourth or fifth place finish in Iowa.  Maybe he catches fire, but at the expense of whom?  Palin?  No.  Gingrich?  A little.  Huckabee?  No.  Romney?  Possibly.  I don't see how he raises money with Palin sucking up all of the oxygen.

There are plenty of paths for Pence, but I'll offer this one:  Pence initially takes his first bite out of the support for the anti-Palin hopefuls (Gingrich, Huck, some Romney).  Then once the campaign for Iowa heats up, he starts raping Palin of her Tea Party support, with the dam bursting when DeMint backs Pence instead of Palin.

And Pence can kill Thune with a single blow:  "Senator Thune, you voted for TARP!"  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Thune doesn't run, seeing too many opponents and his vote for TARP.