Unless Obama can pass healthcare reform, which would link many new voters to him and the Democratic party as Social Security and public works programs did for FDR and tax cuts did for Reagan, he will not be reelected unless unemployment falls below 6% in the next two years.
dang, ya'll are delusional
If Obamacare does pass, it's almost certain Obama is going to lose in 2012 (unless the GOP has a weak candidate, which might be the case). Obamacare is 10 years of taxes to pay for 6 years of benefits - it's all pain and more pain with no benefits until 2014.
The Republican part of me wishes Obamacare would pass. The American and Taxpayer part of me wishes Obamacare will be voted down.
The only reason Dems have bottomed out in polls is because Scott Brown's victory scratched the itch of the public's anger. But if Obamacare passes, many of the GOP big names are going to step up as Senate candidates for the 2010 Senate election cycle and all hell is going to break loose at the Dems expense.
If Obamacare passes, look for the GOP to gain control of both houses of Congress and shut the budgetary process down in 2011 and 2012 in name of repealing Obamacare...and then 2012 will become a referendum to repeal Obamacare.
It's a nightmare scenario for Dems in 2010 and 2012....but if Obamacare goes down in flames, the Dems may only lose 5 more seats in 2010 and Obama will have an even chance at reelection in 2012.
