Has anyone tried this? For my home state of Georgia, I calculated the PVI of the two 2022 marquee races (Gov and Sen) individually relative to the national result, and then averaged the two. (I used the Senate result in the general election for consistency)
National Senate Result: R +.1
Georgia Senate Result: D + .9
Georgia Sen PVI: D+1
National Gov Result: D +.24
Georgia Gov Result: R + 7.5
Georgia Gov PVI: R + 7.74
Average of GA Gov and GA Sen PVI: R+3.37
In the 2020 election, Georgia was 4.27 to the right of the national popular vote, so the 2022 midterms results would suggest a modest leftward swing.
What do you guys think of this as a way to estimate state trends between presidential elections?
I would instead average the State Senate, State House and congressional popular vote.
The congressional popular vote is often meaningless, especially when there are uncontested races or - like in CA - Dem vs. Dem runoffs occur.
