Turkey elections 2023

[Sir Mohamed]

Usually Erdogan should lose, but well... it's not that I expect him to be out of office a few months down the road.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it just that the Wikipedia page hasn't been updated in months, or have polls been banned in Turkey lately? Erdogan was losing through summer 2022, but I haven't seen any more recent surveys.

Seems like it just wasn't updated. Turkish Wikipedia has a page: https://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_T%C3%BCrkiye_cumhurba%C5%9Fkanl%C4%B1%C4%9F%C4%B1_se%C3%A7imi_i%C3%A7in_yap%C4%B1lan_anketler

Erdogan still trailing, but too close for comfort, imho. I think he'll be "reelected" again.

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the chances that this election is postponed?

My Turkish colleagues are convinced it will be, and perhaps even cancelled under this pretense.

Cancelled? Is that even possible? I guess there's a statuary limit as to for how long elections can be postphoned. Usually shouldn't be for more than a few months.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1632802428411060226?s=20

Finally the opposition agreed on a candidate, though I believe Mansur Yavas, the mayor of Ankara, would have been a stronger candidate to take on Erdogan.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1633818507891597313?s=20

Could be an underhanded attempt to bolster the HDP in order to split the anti-Erdogan vote.

Wouldn't that just mean it goes definitely to a runoff between the 2 leading candidates?

[Sir Mohamed]

What are the chances that the presidential system is being undone again, in case Erdogan loses? I would assume there's a good chance for another referendum then in which a majority votes to return to the parliamentary system? It was just 51% that voted the other way in 2017.

[Sir Mohamed]

HDP not nominating a candidate 4 prez. I guess that's good news for the opposition.

https://twitter.com/MiddleEastEye/status/1638533493696221184

[Sir Mohamed]

Politico - Erdoğan cancels public rallies after health scare

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is facing the toughest election of his 20-year rule, canceled planned campaign events Wednesday after falling ill during a live TV broadcast Tuesday night.

“Today, I will be resting at home on the advice of our doctors,” Erdoğan tweeted, adding his condition was a “minor inconvenience due to (his) busy work.”

The Turkish president, who was due to hold rallies in three different Turkish cities on Wednesday, will be replaced by his vice-president, Fuat Oktay.

Erdoğan cut short a live interview Tuesday night after suffering from an upset stomach. Erdoğan was being interviewed on Turkish TV when the program was interrupted for about 20 minutes, after he suddenly felt ill off-camera, according to the BBC.

Probably nothing, but interesting none the less.

Does this help or hurt him? Any takes?

[Sir Mohamed]

Politico - Erdoğan cancels public rallies after health scare

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who is facing the toughest election of his 20-year rule, canceled planned campaign events Wednesday after falling ill during a live TV broadcast Tuesday night.

“Today, I will be resting at home on the advice of our doctors,” Erdoğan tweeted, adding his condition was a “minor inconvenience due to (his) busy work.”

The Turkish president, who was due to hold rallies in three different Turkish cities on Wednesday, will be replaced by his vice-president, Fuat Oktay.

Erdoğan cut short a live interview Tuesday night after suffering from an upset stomach. Erdoğan was being interviewed on Turkish TV when the program was interrupted for about 20 minutes, after he suddenly felt ill off-camera, according to the BBC.

Probably nothing, but interesting none the less.

Does this help or hurt him? Any takes?

My guess is that it hurts him if it undermines his image as a strong leader.

Could also help him though with sympathy votes. And how his challenger handles the situation.

[Sir Mohamed]

What's wrong with Turks in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium?

[Sir Mohamed]

Erdogan's new campaign strategy: Kiliçdaroglu is a drunk and unfaithful.

That's an Erdogan classic. He insulted foreign heads of state before, so this is hardly a surprise. Kilicdaroglu called Erdogan an autocrat and dictator meanwhile.

[Sir Mohamed]

On which date does Erdogan's term formally expire? Assuming he loses?

[Sir Mohamed]

I guess kingmakers would just mean supporting or opposing certain legislation? Since the prez is independently elected and it's not even a semi-presidential system like France, there's no prime minister. Ergo, KK and his administration would have to negotiate with various parties or individual MPs to enact legislation.

A constitutional referendum is supported by Nation Alliance parties to return to a parliamentary system. Once approved, I guess that would trigger a new election anyway?

[Sir Mohamed]

Yup, that was disappointing. More seems like KK "saved himself" by going into the runoff. Sadly this is what I predicted earlier, Erdogan winning a plurality in the 1st round. The results reaffirm my expectation he's going to win now. Could even not be that close. My current prediction would be 53.3%-46.7%. It's really insane to think Erdogan did that well despite an economy in shreds, hyperinflation, international tensions and a totally mishandled earthquake. Controlling most of the media must have done a huge "service".

That said, even if KK were to win, I dunno how much he can get done with a legislative controlled by the AKP and allies. Sure, the Turkish presidency has gained a lot of power since the constitutional referendum, but he still needs parliament for major decisions. And calling for new election could be a risk.

On a final note, it just seems certain polling issues exist in other places as well and there's a hidden right-wing vote for strongmen type leaders. We not only saw this at home, we saw the same pattern in Brazil last year, too.

[Sir Mohamed]

Hahaha

Of course

Whenever the West doesn't get their guy, suddenly, they start blowing up tiny, insignificant, and biased "reports" of fraud such as Twitter screenshots, and elevate them to the point that they are suddenly the all-important and overarching feature that is covered.

"No way? They don't like us?"

Every single election.

Show me links to Western newspaper articles or Tweets from rank and file Western leaders that allege mass rigging occured that altered the outcome.

[Sir Mohamed]

Globe elections 2nd round poll has Erdogan slightly ahead

https://globeelectionshistorysociety.wordpress.com/2023/05/19/tr-pe2023-first-projection-r2/


In their pre-election 1st round poll they had it neck-to-neck so most likely this pollster has a pro-Kılıçdaroğlu bias

Tbh, I've pretty much written the election off. While my 1st round prediction was almost spot on, I had some hope Erdogan might finally be dethroned. I'm 99% certain today he'll win the runoff by a margin of 5-7 pts.

Even if KK still pulls it off, his alliance doesn't have control of Grand National Assembly. So that would lead to divided govt, Turkish edition. As parliamentary control is already decided, this might help Erdogan to argue a vote for his opponent would cause instability.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's not a certain thing all of Ogan's voters switch to Erdogan, though latter's win looks pretty much assured. He seized control over most of Turkey's media landscape, allowing him to stay in power despite many failures.

I don't even expect the margin to be close anymore. I don't see even KK breaking 47%. Erdogan winning by double digits (at least 55-45%) is more likely than him losing.

[Sir Mohamed]

10.8% reporting:

64.3% Erdogan
35.7% Kilcdaroglu

Looks like a 55-45 Erdoğan win based on these early trends. Much bigger than I would have expected. 

Yup. That has been pretty much my prediction since the 1st round, which I already predicted almost spot on.

[Sir Mohamed]

61.4% reporting:

55.3% Erdogan
44.7% Kilcdaroglu

Kilcdaroglu continues to gain relative ground. Now it looks more like 53.5-46.5

I think it's now trending to more 53-47%. It will be closer than expected.

That would still exceed his 52.6% vote share of 2018 though. After all that happened, this is literally insane. It isn't the economy, stupid!

[Sir Mohamed]

Good night, Turkey. That was some weird BS.

This is great testimony how autocrats don't always have to rig an election by changing votes, adding or removing ballots, it's enough to control most of the media. This was one of most lopsided election campaigns of modern times, in which Erdogan got many hours of air time while his opponent was barely mentioned.

The opposition also needs to take a breath and ask themselves whether a 74 year old bureaucrat that never won an election before was the right kind of candidate (please no Biden or Lula comparisons here, both of them won elections before).

[Sir Mohamed]

Shame Kilic lost, I would have loved to see the refugees be kicked out and cause chaos throughout Europe. Kilic was also more western friendly as well.

He wanted refugees sent back to Syria, not into the EU.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's interesting Erdogan replaced almost his entire cabinet and also appointed a new VP. It's cleary a sign he doesn't intent naming some kinf of heir apparent. Neither is he interested one minister becoming too powerful in his shadow.

Assuming his health permit it, I'm fairly certain he'll find a way to bypass term limits in 2028 and continue to say in power.