MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[Sir Mohamed]

What might be critical for Tester is whether there's a libertarian candidate on the ballot and how strong that one is. Libertarians usually take more votes from the GOP, and having such pulling a few points away them would help Tester. Perhaps he can squeak by with another 48-47%.

If I were a MT GOPer, I'd try to use their trifecta in the state to make it hard for any 3rd party candidate to gain ballot access.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is Gianfortte switching to the senate race? I doubt. Most likely is a rematch with Rosendale and early polling is encouraging. I'm starting with a Tilt D rating, though national polarization for sure has the potential to sink Tester.

[Sir Mohamed]

Interesting. Possibly somewhat politically motivated to show some independence from Biden as Tester seeks another term:

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1650939249393278998

[Sir Mohamed]

I actually think Rosendale gets cold feet and decides to run for re-election to his House seat, where he’ll have no problem winning again. Rosendale has repeatedly tried to run for Congress (House and Senate). Now that he has a safe seat, why risk having a (potentially) competitive primary and a (certainly) competitive general election?

Well, being a senator gets you more influence and you don't have to run for reelection each 2 years. There's for sure a big upside for him to try again and 2024 might be the last chance.

[Sir Mohamed]

Tester is DONE after killing the Mayorkas Impeachment Articles with Immigration being among the Top 2 Issues in Montana and elsewhere.

Quick reminder it wasn't Tester or the Dems who sunk the border security bill. This "impeachment" is just a PR stunt and nobody outside partisan GOP voters really cares.