Sweden and Finland set to join NATO in May

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/charlyjsp/status/1523687370129915907?s=20&t=3ar7EVXvK9WS...

Putin has accomplished what no American president could ever have. Even Germany paying its 2% in defense.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/1526202105731629056

[Sir Mohamed]

Leave NATO or just throw Turkey out. I would gladly trade them for Finland and Sweden.

https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1526900613434466305

[Sir Mohamed]

The Montenegrin Parliament voted yesterday (July 28th) 57-3-11 for Finland, 57-2-11 for Sweden. I guess Dejan Đurović didn't feel it was worth voting against Swedish NATO membership. As you'd expect, all the members who voted "PROTIV" appear to be Serb nationalists.

The US Senate is scheduled to vote on August 1st!

Evidently the Italian National Assembly is voting tomorrow and the US Senate isn't voting today, but lol:

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1554095814611443712?s=20&t=OAr5_W...

McCaskill -> Hawley was possibly one of the worst senate downgrades EVER.

[Sir Mohamed]

Today Erdogan announced that Turkish elections are being held in May instead of June. So hopefully he loses as some polls say and this finally gets done.

Even if he loses, will he leave office? I fear he could rig the election.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1620732082732560387
https://twitter.com/turgutalpboyraz/status/1620727201636442112

The quran burnings are a lazy excuse. Why allow one silly person to dictate major political decisions?

[Sir Mohamed]

It makes me sick that Erdogan is on Putin's side. And yet, if we eject Turkey from NATO, there's no reason for them not to invade Greece. What a horrible timeline.

Um, maybe the rest of NATO not wanting a hot war in a member state and the cradle of Western civilization?

Friendly reminder to keep in mind who're responding to.

[Sir Mohamed]

Awesome - just awesome!

What a colossal L for Putin & Russia and it's by their own doing. Happy to welcome Finland aboard to NATO!

Yup, that was a huge own goal by Putler. So much for the strategic mastermind.

It's just unfortunate Sweden still isn't admitted. Hopefully Erdogan loses next month and Turkey changes course.

[Sir Mohamed]

WaPo: Sen. Jim Risch blocks HIMARS sale to Hungary for stalling Sweden's NATO bid

The sale is ~$700m and includes 24 launchers. Hungary had not publicly announced it.

I'm a bit surprised by this - I thought Hungary's opposition was essentially trolling and therefore wouldn't be treated seriously.

This time I have to agree with Risch. Hungary will probably give up its opposition once Erdogan does, still annoying though.

[Sir Mohamed]

German newssources say that Erdogan wants a big deal done, including purchasing US fighter jets. Unfortunately he knows how to play his cards, especially since there's little leverage the other members have since a member can't be kicked out either. And even if it was possible, Turkey's geographical location is just too important for American presence (although I'd prefer Sweden and Finland in to Turkey and Hungary out; latter's membership of the EU should also be questioned).

Yup, the only possible mechanism is for all countries but Turkey and Hungary to leave NATO and form some kind of NATO 2.0. without them. Or just threaten to do so. That said, losing Turkey would for sure be a strategical mistake.

[Sir Mohamed]

I understand Finland and Sweden's interest, but Switzerland comes as a complete surprise.  I wonder why they want to join the program:

Swiss neutrality has been chipped away at in recent years - particularly since the February 2022 invasion.

They imposed sanctions on Russia for "serious violation of the most fundamental norms of international law". And a report from the Swiss Ministry of Defence has encouraged closer ties with NATO - including the potential for joint military exercises.

Also, while the Swiss public oppose NATO membership 2:1, recent polling showed a majority (56%) favoured closer ties and cooperation with NATO.

There are just instances where "neutrality" is not really an option. Not when you have such a clear right vs. wrong situation.

As for NATO membership, watching out for Austria seems more realistic, though I doubt it will actually happen. Both are fully surrounded by NATO members, so the situation is different from Finnland and Sweden.

[Sir Mohamed]

There's still Kaliningrad.

Now completely surrounded, on land and sea, by NATO members.

Kaliningrad is possibly less endangered than the Suwalki gap in case of a NATO-Russia military confrontation. Sweden becoming a member of NATO is massive gain for the Baltics though, as potential supplies of additional troops and material could easily go through Sweden (and Finland to a degree). From what I'm reading, Gotland Island is the most important strategic location of NATO in the entire Baltic Sea.