If you only saw results from MI (prez+sen.), what would have been your prediction?

[Sir Mohamed]

If you only saw the results for prez and senate from MI a few weeks before the election, what would have been your guess how the entire election turned out? MI was always seen as the easiest Dem pickup from 2016 and Biden most of time was ahead in the polls outside the MoE. While he did end up winning the state by 2.8 pts or 150k votes, it ended up closer than expected.






Tbh, this would have been my result map:



✓ President Donald J. Trump (R-FL)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 289 EVs.; 47.8%
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA): 249 EVs.; 50.7%

As for the senate, I would never have expected Dem control. I would have assumed only CO and maybe AZ (very barely) flipped while AL flips R. So Trump reelected, and 52 or 53 R senate, while Dems keep the House with a smaller margin.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maybe if this was 2016, I would have assumed Biden was going to lose, but after 2016, seeing the Democrat win Michigan by 3, I would have assumed that the Democrats probably won PA, WI, NC, FL, AZ, and GA as well. Or at least that in NC, AZ, FL, and GA that they were very close but that the Democrat would by at least 2% in the freiwal states.

Interesting. I always kind of underestimated GOP support in MI before 2016, and even after 2016 to a degree because Obama so handily won that state in 2008 and 2012. For me, MI was almost always as D as SC is R. For sure I now admit that was more wishful thinking than anything else.