538 model & poll tracker thread

[Sir Mohamed]

Hope their election forecast gets released soon. As others said, Silver may be reluctant to so at the current state of the race because you must assume Biden as >90% chance of winning.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think Biden's chance to win is closer to 85% than 71%. Unless something drastic happens, Trump can only hang on with severe voter suppression. He's in worse shape than in '16.

81% chance for Biden NPV win is also pretty low. With CA having moved to Titanium D and TX competitive, there is almost zero chance Biden misses to receive the most votes. I'd say his chance is almost 99%, while 81% chance for an absolute majority (>50%).