If Trump's approval rating stays around 35%:
✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 308 EVs.; 50.7%
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 230 EVs.; 46.8%
If his approval rating is at 30% or below:
✓ Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA): 359 EVs.; 52.5%
President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 230 EVs.; 45.6%
GA would be very close in the second scenario (within 2-3 points). I still think TX is out of reach for 2020 unless it's a landslide (Dem winning over 53% of the national PV). The Lone-Star-State ay become competative in 2024 or 2028. OH and IA are more elastic. Dems simply must win back Obama voters and mobilize their voters to carry these two again.
