Are the Republicans locked out of the Electoral College?

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, I wouldn’t say locked out but it has become much more difficult to reach to magic number of 270 electoral votes. This has mainly to do with the demographic changes in many purple states (and the country as a whole as well), which saw an increase of Democratic-leaning voters like latinos and blacks. Take VA, CO and NV, they’re all trending blue (NV to a lesser extent in current polls). All of them were won by W but are almost out of reach for the GOP unless they manage a to win the national popular vote by a larger margin; say three for four points. NM is another example; won by W in 2004, it is now de facto a blue state. Due to these demographic changes that saw a substantial decrease of white voters, more states trend into the Dem’s column while no blue states trend right (PA and WI are still not really in play). AZ and GA are other examples, which became purple or just barely red states, but were considered solid Republican territory ten years ago. Even if PA is trending red in the near future, meaning 2020 and onward, the “losses” on the other hand can’t compensate this. The GOP would need WI, MN and MI for example, but I can’t see that happening any time soon. Even not in PA’s case at this time.

The trend becomes also clear by looking at the maximal potential for each party: Democrats can easily win over 300 electoral votes, even over 350. Since 1992, Democrats received well over 300 electoral votes in each of their victories and got at least 250 in every single election, including the two lost races. The GOP only won the EC twice, and by close margins (W in 2000 and 2004). Flip either FL or OH in these contests, and the end result is different. Since 1992, only in three elections they managed to get 200 electoral votes; in Romney’s case it just crossed the line barely. It’s fair to say that Bush 41 will likely remain the last Republican who has won over 300 electoral votes. Even if the Trumpster were still competitive now, his ceiling is at 280 or 290 electoral votes. Hillary’s ceiling is at 370 or 380 votes.

What the GOP needs is a renewal in their platform. They should remain conservative, but open its doors for minorities and moderate their views on immigration while advocating fiscal conservatism and include more elements of libertarism to appeal younger voters. And: End the total obstruction in congress. It serves nobody, except a few tea-party nuts who hold the rest of the party as hostage.

While this is the current problem for the GOP, Democrats have huge problems with governors and state legislatures, but that has more to do with low voter turnout in off-year elections and gerrymandering.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, I wouldn’t say locked out but it has become much more difficult to reach to magic number of 270 electoral votes. This has mainly to do with the demographic changes in many purple states (and the country as a whole as well), which saw an increase of Democratic-leaning voters like latinos and blacks. Take VA, CO and NV, they’re all trending blue (NV to a lesser extent in current polls). All of them were won by W but are almost out of reach for the GOP unless they manage a to win the national popular vote by a larger margin; say three for four points. NM is another example; won by W in 2004, it is now de facto a blue state. Due to these demographic changes that saw a substantial decrease of white voters, more states trend into the Dem’s column while no blue states trend right (PA and WI are still not really in play). AZ and GA are other examples, which became purple or just barely red states, but were considered solid Republican territory ten years ago. Even if PA is trending red in the near future, meaning 2020 and onward, the “losses” on the other hand can’t compensate this. The GOP would need WI, MN and MI for example, but I can’t see that happening any time soon. Even not in PA’s case at this time.

The trend becomes also clear by looking at the maximal potential for each party: Democrats can easily win over 300 electoral votes, even over 350. Since 1992, Democrats received well over 300 electoral votes in each of their victories and got at least 250 in every single election, including the two lost races. The GOP only won the EC twice, and by close margins (W in 2000 and 2004). Flip either FL or OH in these contests, and the end result is different. Since 1992, only in three elections they managed to get 200 electoral votes; in Romney’s case it just crossed the line barely. It’s fair to say that Bush 41 will likely remain the last Republican who has won over 300 electoral votes. Even if the Trumpster were still competitive now, his ceiling is at 280 or 290 electoral votes. Hillary’s ceiling is at 370 or 380 votes.

What the GOP needs is a renewal in their platform. They should remain conservative, but open its doors for minorities and moderate their views on immigration while advocating fiscal conservatism and include more elements of libertarism to appeal younger voters. And: End the total obstruction in congress. It serves nobody, except a few tea-party nuts who hold the rest of the party as hostage.

While this is the current problem for the GOP, Democrats have huge problems with governors and state legislatures, but that has more to do with low voter turnout in off-year elections and gerrymandering.

What does 'opening doors for minorities' mean? Mccain had moderate views on immigration. Reagan even granted amnesty, yet Dems overwhelmingly won the minority vote, even when Bill Clinton campaigned against illegal immigration, he still won the vote. The only parts of 'libertarianism' the youth is interested in are social issues and foreign policy (basically the 2 parts that the GOP won't accept).

The GWB team figured out that most minorities and Hispanics are interested in economic issues, this is why he sold 'compassionate conservatism', which was more of a centrist economic approach.

McCain lost for other reasons, 2008 was a very bad year for the GOP. What they should do: push for immigration reform, allow illegal immigrants to stay in and apply for work visas (which need to be reformed as well; make it easier to get one). Don’t demonize these all the illegals, because most of them are law-abiding people. The GOP should also try to connect more with these people: Seek exchanges on all levels, through politicians, organizations, the media etc. Try to find out what their problems are and then work on common-sense solutions for these problems. Take police violence for example. Most GOP officials are very one-sided in favor of the police; some are even racist (though not openly). But being one-sided won’t solve the problems.

[Sir Mohamed]

Well, I wouldn’t say locked out but it has become much more difficult to reach to magic number of 270 electoral votes. This has mainly to do with the demographic changes in many purple states (and the country as a whole as well), which saw an increase of Democratic-leaning voters like latinos and blacks. Take VA, CO and NV, they’re all trending blue (NV to a lesser extent in current polls). All of them were won by W but are almost out of reach for the GOP unless they manage a to win the national popular vote by a larger margin; say three for four points. NM is another example; won by W in 2004, it is now de facto a blue state. Due to these demographic changes that saw a substantial decrease of white voters, more states trend into the Dem’s column while no blue states trend right (PA and WI are still not really in play). AZ and GA are other examples, which became purple or just barely red states, but were considered solid Republican territory ten years ago. Even if PA is trending red in the near future, meaning 2020 and onward, the “losses” on the other hand can’t compensate this. The GOP would need WI, MN and MI for example, but I can’t see that happening any time soon. Even not in PA’s case at this time.

The trend becomes also clear by looking at the maximal potential for each party: Democrats can easily win over 300 electoral votes, even over 350. Since 1992, Democrats received well over 300 electoral votes in each of their victories and got at least 250 in every single election, including the two lost races. The GOP only won the EC twice, and by close margins (W in 2000 and 2004). Flip either FL or OH in these contests, and the end result is different. Since 1992, only in three elections they managed to get 200 electoral votes; in Romney’s case it just crossed the line barely. It’s fair to say that Bush 41 will likely remain the last Republican who has won over 300 electoral votes. Even if the Trumpster were still competitive now, his ceiling is at 280 or 290 electoral votes. Hillary’s ceiling is at 370 or 380 votes.

What the GOP needs is a renewal in their platform. They should remain conservative, but open its doors for minorities and moderate their views on immigration while advocating fiscal conservatism and include more elements of libertarism to appeal younger voters. And: End the total obstruction in congress. It serves nobody, except a few tea-party nuts who hold the rest of the party as hostage.

While this is the current problem for the GOP, Democrats have huge problems with governors and state legislatures, but that has more to do with low voter turnout in off-year elections and gerrymandering.

What does 'opening doors for minorities' mean? Mccain had moderate views on immigration. Reagan even granted amnesty, yet Dems overwhelmingly won the minority vote, even when Bill Clinton campaigned against illegal immigration, he still won the vote. The only parts of 'libertarianism' the youth is interested in are social issues and foreign policy (basically the 2 parts that the GOP won't accept).

The GWB team figured out that most minorities and Hispanics are interested in economic issues, this is why he sold 'compassionate conservatism', which was more of a centrist economic approach.

McCain lost for other reasons, 2008 was a very bad year for the GOP. What they should do: push for immigration reform, allow illegal immigrants to stay in and apply for work visas (which need to be reformed as well; make it easier to get one). Don’t demonize these all the illegals, because most of them are law-abiding people. The GOP should also try to connect more with these people: Seek exchanges on all levels, through politicians, organizations, the media etc. Try to find out what their problems are and then work on common-sense solutions for these problems. Take police violence for example. Most GOP officials are very one-sided in favor of the police; some are even racist (though not openly). But being one-sided won’t solve the problems.

'Law and Order', that's one of the centerpoints of conservatism that exists in all countries that have RW parties on the planet.  Those immigrants want more moderate economic policies like many of them have even in their home countries (even mexico has a form of universal healthcare + they even have gay marraige, etc.). Immigration policy is not that important relative to other concerns:

http://www.salon.com/2000/01/13/latinos/

Of course the GOP knows this, but in order to get funds from the Koch brothers and top donors they are told to push hard-right economic policies.

I agree about economic and social issues, which I mentioned in the first post. But the fact that the 2013 immigration bill, which gave something to both sides, has failed didn’t help the GOP’s image among Hispanics. That’s for sure.