Why did CA, IL, NJ, CT, and VT vote Republican before 1992?

[Hydera]

Illinois and Connecticut had suburbs that leaned GOP. However after the GOP drifted rightward on social and religious issues, combined with immigration and a growing minority population they become democratic leaning. Bill Clinton won these states by changing some stances on economic issues . Instead of raising taxes on everybody aka: Mondale 1984. it became lowering taxes for the middle class and raising them on the wealthy.  This allowed the democrats to win white suburbanites in states like Illinois and Connecticut which previously were strongly GOP leaning.

Vermont is an interesting case of a state without much immigration as those other states but shifted towards the Democrats. But its the same social factors with many in vermont disagreeing with the rightward social shift of the GOP after the 1970s growth of evangelicals participation in politics when before they either didnt vote or didnt vote based on social/religious issues, that made the GOP become a socially evangelical minded party to capture those voters.

Plus vermont had influx of out of state residents in North-East that brought with them a more left leaning minded politics.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/08/13/upshot/where-people-in-each-state-were-born.html#Vermont

in 1960 27% of vermonters  were born in another state. by 2010s it was 48%.

As for why vermont didnt go democrat until 1992.  Vermont benefited from the 80s economic growth that was credited to Reagan and that made the GOP win the state in 1984 and 1988 much less strongly as those Anderson voters who voted for Reagan in 1984 started switching to the democrats. Then the state was hit in the 1992 recession which allowed for Bill Clinton to win a plurality. And when the economy was in good shape by 1996 a lot of voters that once voted GOP decided that they liked the Democrats better and joined with the growing liberal base in the state made it strongly democratic leaning after 1992.

[Hydera]

VT was ancestrally Republican. Prior to the mid 20th century, if you were a white, Anglo-Saxon protestant in the Northern states, you were likely a Republican. Vermont was 99% white, 70% or so Congregationalist and therefore very Republican. The state was historically protectionist and often supported anti-immigrant Republicans.


In the mid 20th century you had several factors change the makeup of the state. You had an extensive in-migration of people into the state. You had the decline of religious affiliation, the rise of environmentalism as a political force and of course, generational change. By the late 1950's the state's Conservative wing was pretty much demolished, and only the moderate to liberal Republicans were able to secure victory thereafter. The state continue to vote Republican for President except for 1964, but the margins dropped every cycle until in 1992, it flipped and then never went back.

The other states had massive suburban populations that were heavily Republican and lower middle class that were swing voters that people like Nixon, Reagan and Bush 41 could sway. The Republican margins among the former degraded in the late 1980's and the 1991-1992 recession hammered white collar professionals, who had previously been largely untouched by recessions. Diversification, generational change/decline in religiosity within those suburbs, also meant that newer voters within the same areas were far less inclined to be Republican and in some areas were far left liberals. This came to a head in 1992, as Bill Clinton was a perfect fit to win all these groups and cause them to flip.

Oh yes forgot to mention about the 1991-1992 recession.

The states mentioned in the title were hit pretty hard by that recession. A lot of white collar professionals who did thought they were immune because past recessions usually hit the manufacturing, retail and construction sector more-so than white collar professions were finally hurt just as bad.