South Korean (early) presidential election (9 May 2017)

[Hydera]

With 70% of the vote in it is

Moon  39.72
Hong  25.88
Ahn   21.40
Yoo      6.57
Sim     5.87

Hong still running about 2%-3% ahead exit polls in urban areas but mostly matches exit polls in rural areas.  Most likely he will end up with something like 25.3% which is 2% ahead of his exit poll numbers.

Just curious, is there any poll showing how the votes would end up if it was just Moon vs Hong?

[Hydera]

Final polling averages along with exit polls (from Japanese election blog)



Hong was projected to get around 17% of the vote, exit polls said 23.3% and most likely he will end up with around 24.3%

What's with the massive jump for Ahn Cheol-soo? Where did it come from? No one else seemed to lose support (in fact Moon Jae-in had an increase at the same time).

He campaigned as the anti-Moon candidate which got him a lot of support from conservatives who where gonna vote for him just to stop moon. Then he tanked in the debates and Hong was able to get a lot of that conservative vote to come home.