IA/NH-Bloomberg: Sanders gains, Clinton stronger in NH (user search)
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  IA/NH-Bloomberg: Sanders gains, Clinton stronger in NH (search mode)
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Author Topic: IA/NH-Bloomberg: Sanders gains, Clinton stronger in NH  (Read 827 times)
Gallium
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Posts: 270
« on: June 25, 2015, 05:41:26 AM »
« edited: June 25, 2015, 05:43:44 AM by Gallium »

http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-06-24/IA-methodology-public.pdf
http://images.businessweek.com/cms/2015-06-24/NH-methodology-public.pdf

Iowa:
Clinton: 50%
Sanders: 24%
O'Malley: 2%
Chafee: 0%

New Hampshire:
Clinton: 56%
Sanders: 24%
O'Malley: 2%
Chafee: 1%
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Gallium
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Posts: 270
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2015, 12:49:39 PM »
« Edited: June 25, 2015, 12:51:27 PM by Gallium »

Even if Clinton gets 70% of the vote in Iowa, Sanders could very well take 20-25% which is more than respectable.  
I expect the vote to eventually split ~65%-35%, just like Gore-Bradley.

O'Malley, Webb and Chafee are not going to be able to reach the 15% threshold, so he'll be able to consolidate all the second-choice ABH votes to himself on caucus night.
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