2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Ebsy]

lol a GOP internal showing their candidate with way under 50% of the vote is "very bad for dems".

[Ebsy]

A Limo vs King Lear pissing match, kill me now

It's like those threads on reddit where two bots reply to each other endlessly.

[Ebsy]

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https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/960876827517571072

Devastating numbers.

[Ebsy]

who care about partisan polls?

[Ebsy]

The amount of projection from limoliberal onto better posters is sort of incredible.

[Ebsy]

Scary numbers for the GOP.

[Ebsy]

CA-25 (Steve Knight):

Knight approval: 36/44
Trump approval: 40/55

Knight/D: 42/44

CA-39 (Open):

R/D: 43/45

CA-49 (Open):

R/D: 41/50

FL-27 (Open)

R/D: 39/54

IA-01 (Blum):

Blum approval: 37/47
Trump approval: 40/55

Blum/Finkenauer: 42/43

KS-02 (Open):

R/Davis: 42/44

KY-06 (Barr):

Barr approval: 48/41
Trump approve: 50/45

Barr/D: 43/44

ME-02 (Poliquin):

Poliquin approval: 41/49
Trump approval: 43/52

Poliquin/D: 44/45

MI-11 (Open):

R/D: 42/45

MN-03 (Paulsen):

Paulsen approval 38/46
Trump approbal: 40/56

Paulsen/Phillips: 43/46

NJ-11 (Open):

Sherill/R: 40/42

NY-19 (Faso):

Faso approval: 37/44
Trump approval: 47/49

Faso/D: 42/42

TX-23 (Hurd):

Hurd approval: 46/31
Trump approval: 42/52

Hurd/D: 44/43

WA-08 (Open):

Trump approval: 43/52

Rossi/D: 43/44

[Ebsy]

CA-25: ALG for Caforio (D)

Knight (GOP): 43
Caforio (DEM): 19
Hil (DEM): 10
Phoenix (DEM): 7
Other: 5
Undecided: 7

[Ebsy]

I mean we held 1/2 of Kansas' congressional seats from 2007-2009 so this is not exactly unprecedented. Now, if Thompson won against Estes and we held 3/4, that would be really something.

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

We've known Coffman was going down since he fled that town hall a year ago.

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of CO-06, on behalf of End Citizens United: Crow (D) +5

Jason Crow (D) - 44%
Mike Coffman (R) - 39%

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO-06-Survey-2-1.pdf

If we’re not beating Coffman, we’re not winning the House

Isn't Crow despised by liberals?

Probably not as much as Coffman.

[Ebsy]

PPP poll for PCCC of CA-49 (Issa's seat):

Levin (DEM): 47
Chavez (GOP): 39

[Ebsy]

The online polls, as usual, are junk.

[Ebsy]

PPP poll of CA-45 (Walter's seat): http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/2018polling_ca45/


First round:

Walters (GOP): 42
Porter (DEM): 16
Min (DEM): 12
Ford (DEM): 4
Hamandanchy (DEM): 6

Second round:

Walters: 44
Porter: 46

Walters: 44
Min: 45

[Ebsy]

I'm not hearing anything one way or the other about the Monmouth poll on my end.

I'm hearing positive Trump approval.

lol

Even if that happens, how on earth would you have sources telling you the contents of some university poll?

[Ebsy]

The Monmouth national polls that was supposed to come out yesterday afternoon is now apparently coming out on CNN at 1:00 EDT.

[Ebsy]

Commanding numbers in Virginia. I would ignore the CD breakdowns, the sample sizes are too small to be super meaningful.

[Ebsy]

Dems +9 on congressional ballot. Limoliberal humiliated.

[Ebsy]

Amazing article from Culumbia University Sociology Professor Musa-al Garbi
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/07/opinion/texas-primary-results-blue.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fopinon

This is exceedingly lazy analysis.

[Ebsy]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Just the PPP one that showed Newman down 2 iirc.

[Ebsy]

Do we have any IL-06 D primary polls?

Just the PPP one that showed Newman down 2 iirc.

A PPP internal for NARAL or PP if I remember right

PPP has always been pretty consistent in the quality of their internals.

[Ebsy]

Elway poll of WA-05:

[Ebsy]

Quinnipiac always jumps around a lot.

[Ebsy]

I’m curious how QPac’s sample’s work. Those are some bonkers swings compared to relatively stable polling we’ve seen elsewhere

I just looked at their subsamples... They have democrats leading 18-29 voters....

46-42!!! WTF?

This makes a lot of sense considering there’s lots of evidence that the next generation of White people (Generation Z) is going to be significantly more Republican then the Millennials, due to the fact that their the first generation to be totally raised in an age of extremely rapid Racial diversification.

There is actually no evidence to support this and quite a bit refuting it.

[Ebsy]

Morning Consult: April 19-23, 1993 RV

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000162-f99c-d817-a7f2-f99cd7940001

Democrat: 44 (+1)
Republican: 35 (-1)