OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Ebsy]

For those who asked:



As expected, vote by Mail narrowly favor GOP registrees, but Democrats are dominating among In-Person returns.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, I was actually shocked how close Democrats have kept VBM returns. Now, there will be a lot of returns before election day, but still.

Now that Saturday early voting has concluded (will have those numbers hopefully tomorrow), there are just 4 hours tomorrow and 6 hours on Monday left of early voting. VBM ballots. however, are accepted up until polls close on Tuesday.

[Ebsy]

I have a sneak peak for tomorrow's numbers (actually today, you know what I mean), where in Franklin County, Democrats turned in 849 (55%) ballots to 402 Other ballots, with Republicans coming in a distant third with 296 (19%) ballots. This was driven by a massive 664 Dem to 159 GOP lead among in person absentees. Looking like the surge is real!

[Ebsy]

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usally varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

I am expecting closer 100k-110k based on the early vote.

[Ebsy]

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usually varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

I am expecting closer 100k-110k based on the early vote.

What was the early vote in recent elections in OH, as a percentage of the total vote ?

The average in this district has been 32% for the past couple general elections.

[Ebsy]

Today's (partial) update:



I only got partial returns (still, I think it has the majority from both) from Morrow and Licking Counties so the numbers here are preliminary. For what we have, Democrats won early voting with 44% to the Republicans 32%, padding their vote lead by 400 votes. Both parties fell in their vote share, as Other voters made up almost 25% of returns for Saturday. This was driven by massive in person returns in Franklin County, as I alluded to above, though Democrats also improved in Richland, Marion and Delaware Counties off strong in person returns.

[Ebsy]

Still, local countywide elected official in the largest county in the district is far from a recruiting failure.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026244406029045762

Saturday's Dem blowout in the in person absentees in Franklin County went for a repeat today.

[Ebsy]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Wait, it's over? I though we still had tommorow.

That is correct, there are 6 hours of early voting tomorrow. The final daily update should be tomorrow afternoon.

[Ebsy]

B-b-but the Red Wave!

[Ebsy]

Final Update:



Through today, the last day of early voting. Democrats end with a 10.5 point edge in early vote vote partisanship (compared to their usual 20+ point deficit). I'll have more analysis tonight, but this is consistent with 1. a close race and 2. special election turnout of around 110-140k. Franklin Count has dropped quite a bit from their initial share of the early vote, but it is still far ahead of it's usual 32% of the electorate.

[Ebsy]

Final numbers on absentees by vote type:

[Ebsy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mayakauf/status/1026849894332547072

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/mayakauf/status/1026872312417710082

This is in Westerville, expected to be a strong area for O'Connor.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/GideonResnick/status/1026878546797621248

[Ebsy]

GET HIM OUT OF HERE! OUT OUT OUT!

[Ebsy]

High turnout in Dublin:

https://twitter.com/mayakauf/status/1026923046727299073

[Ebsy]

Most of it is in Franklin I think.