OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Ebsy]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

Given the number of relocated and, especially, first time voters the other category constitutes, I wouldn't be too worried if I was O'Connor

I think this hits the nail on the head. Probably tonight and throughout the week I will have some more analysis of how many of early voters are new registers and also what the return rates are for the various parties across the 7 counties. Expect to see the numbers for the latter tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

[Ebsy]

As you can see, the ballot return rate for Democrats is substantially higher than Republicans and Other voters, possibly indicating a pronounced enthusiasm gap between the two parties in this special election. Additionally, Franklin, Delaware and Licking Counties have higher than average absentee returns, lending credence to the "suburban surge" that O'Connor will need to win.

[Ebsy]

I've been alerted to the fact that early voting hours are extended this week, so I may be updating today's counts later with the last couple hours of voting, assuming the databases I access update this evening (they may not).

[Ebsy]

Looks like Balderson has not done a good job of brining together Republicans:

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1024059851822059520

Like clockwork, Republicans floating possible explanations for a loss here. Still, this could explain why Republican turnout has been particularly anemic in early voting thus far.

[Ebsy]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

[Ebsy]

After reading the complaint, the allegations of improper recount procedures and vote tampering in Muskingum County are actually pretty serious and credible.

[Ebsy]

The Leneghan story is old hat by now.  It’s also specifically a suit over the primary results for the general election, which was closer.

Well now we have a GOP State Rep on record saying that many conservatives believe the allegations and will be sitting out next week.

[Ebsy]

I'd trust Andy Brenner about as far as I could throw him.

Republican turnout might be down around Liberty Township, where Leneghan is a Trustee, but I don't think it'll be by much.

I've found that the crazy, scummy Republican state representatives are more clued into the conservative base of the party than any of the more established party figures.

[Ebsy]

This is NOT today's update, and I will explain my reasoning below:



Up to this point, most of each day's early voting was captured in the daily reports I had been downloading and putting together, but now that early voting hours have extended, much more of each day's votes are occurring after the daily updates. Yesterday's vote totals went from 1117 to 2372 with all of the in person absentees, and it changed the composition of yesterday's ballots as well, with the massive number of ballots in Franklin pushing the Democrats from a 100 vote deficit to a 20 vote lead. Most of the change in the overall margin was from a higher share of Other voters in these later in person absentees. For these reasons, each daily report is going to be time-lagged by a day in order to fully capture all of the votes being cast. The July 31 update will be posted tomorrow, August 1. My apologies for any confusion.

[Ebsy]

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-stumping-for-balderson-on-saturday-in-central-ohio-ahead-of-special-election

Trump headed to suburban Delaware County to bail Balderson out. Looking more and more like things are spinning out of control for the GOP.

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

[Ebsy]

This is not exactly the type of district with any sort of ancestral democratic presence... quite the opposite, actually.

[Ebsy]

This is not exactly the type of district with any sort of ancestral democratic presence... quite the opposite, actually.

Through Trump...all things are possible

Trump got less of a share in this district than McCain or Romney.

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

[Ebsy]

I know the Saturday and Sunday before election day are typically big early voting days in many of Ohio's bigger cities. As to whether it is a phenomenon in the mostly suburban and rural OH-12, I can't say.

[Ebsy]

Guys, the party registration numbers are based on the 2018 primary, not the 2016 one.

Unless someone voted in the 2016 primary and not the 2018 primary.

Yes, it is based on the most recent primary.

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



Both Democrats and Republicans fell in returns relative to yesterday, with "Other" voters comprising a high of 20% of absentee returns. I peeked ahead at some of today's returns, and the pattern of returns looked a lot different from previous days, with Others making up a much larger share, so I would expect their share to increase through the weekend. I do not know if county boards will be updating their counts throughout voting this weekend, so there may not be another update until Monday.

[Ebsy]

Trump's Saturday rally has been moved from Newark in Licking County to Orange Township in Delaware County, right on the border with Franklin County. Make of this what you will.

[Ebsy]

Question for NOVA Green: is there any way to look at the results for say 2016 by vote type (VBM, In person absentee, election day) so that it can be compared against those groups of voters partisanship?

[Ebsy]

So, we have been operating under the assumption that O'Connor needs to open up a massive lead in the early vote in order to overcome a large GOP edge on election day, which is the conventional wisdom in Ohio. There has been dithering about just how large, but the prior assumption here is what is important. However, when you go back and look at the partisanship of the 2016 electorate and compare it to now, the numbers paint a different picture.

In OH-12* in 2016, Democrats only enjoyed a small partisanship** advantage from the early vote compared to the election day vote, getting 22.6% in early ballots to 20.6% on election day. The GOP comprised 36.6 of the early vote electorate and 38% of the election day vote, with Other voters outnumbering both parties in both voting periods. The actual margin difference between early voters and election day voters was only 3.4 points in favor the Democrats, not exactly a gigantic margin. Additionally, if you assume Other voters split roughly 50/50, with a slight edge to the GOP, you end up very near the expected result for a Republican in this district.

What does this tell us? Democrats' performance in the early vote thus far is extremely anamalous, and while it is expected that Republicans will gain a couple more points, Democrats are going to end up at least twice their normal vote share, with Republicans under where they usually are. There is also the expectation that Other voters are going to buck trends and break towards O'Connor. We also now have considerable reason to doubt that the election day electorate is going to be nearly as Republican as has been suggested, as past election results indicate that it was not in 2016. Of course, Democrats could be abnormally banking their votes in this district, but we have no evidence of that one way or the other.

*Excluding Richland and Morrow Counties
**Partisanship figures are current as of the 2018 primary

[Ebsy]

Foucaulf's analysis is that, assuming past party composition relationships remain consistent, Democrats only need a mid single digit lead in partisanship in the early vote, even less if "Other" voters break towards O'Connor. Whoever it was that said that O'Connor needed to win the EV by 20 points was not accurate at all.

[Ebsy]

It shouldn't be too much of a problem to get a partisanship breakdown for mail in vs. in person absentees, though the data will need some cleaning since not all the counties track it the same way. I will say from simply looking at the data over the past several weeks that mail ins seem to be very Republican while Democrats definitely dominated in person absentees, but I can get you the exact breakdown.

[Ebsy]

Foucaulf's analysis is that, assuming past party composition relationships remain consistent, Democrats only need a mid single digit lead in partisanship in the early vote, even less if "Other" voters break towards O'Connor. Whoever it was that said that O'Connor needed to win the EV by 20 points was not accurate at all.

Again, after the 2016 experience, I question how we can have confidence in early vote as a predicative measure. I really appreciate your work and it is an interesting data point to show engagement... but I would be cautious about trying to derive benchmarks with significance since the numbers are still so low compared to the final totals.

Well, the early vote indicators in Ohio showed that Democrats were in trouble in 2016, so I am not exactly sure what the "2016 experience" is.

[Ebsy]

Update:



Democrats improved in their absentee performance from yesterday, and Other voters continued to increase while Republicans dropped, possibly signalling a Democratic bump this weekend. Republicans continue to lag behind where they would be in a normal general election.

[Ebsy]

Update:



Democrats improved in their absentee performance from yesterday, and Other voters continued to increase while Republicans dropped, possibly signalling a Democratic bump this weekend. Republicans continue to lag behind where they would be in a normal general election.

Dems went from 49.44% to 48.14% and that's improving?

Democrats were 36% of returns on Thursday, and near 40% on Friday.