State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Ebsy]

Precinct results for Bristol township in 2016:

[Ebsy]

Would be 52 to 48, a 10 point swing.

[Ebsy]

Democrats got 561 votes compared to 2,007 in 2016, turning out 28% of their voters.

Republicans got 611 to Trump's 2,786, turning out 22% of their voters.

Another data point for the emerging enthusiasm gap.

[Ebsy]

Presidential election results for the upcoming specials on September 12:

NH HD Belknap 9: 2016: Clinton 39, Trump 56 | 2012: Obama 50, Romney 49

OK HD 46: Clinton 41, Trump 52 | 2012: Obama 40, Romney 60

MS HD 102 (Top 2 advance in no candidate is over 50%): Data no available, but this is a safe Republican seat.

Not seeing OK SD 44 on the list of special elections on ballotpedia, is it just a primary or am I missing something?

[Ebsy]

This was the result in Belknap 9 in 2016:



Not much margin to fall for the GOP here.

[Ebsy]

Oklahoma SD 37 is just a primary tomorrow, general will be in November.

[Ebsy]

Apparently, contrary to recent State House election results, Clinton and Obama both narrowly won Mississippi HD 102. Be on the look out for an flip there as well, meaning that all three seats are going to be competitive.

[Ebsy]

New Hampshire closes at 7 EST, Mississippi and Oklahoma at 8 EST.

[Ebsy]

For New Hampshire, WMUR reporter John DiStaso is the guy to follow on twitter for results: https://twitter.com/jdistaso/

[Ebsy]

Bryce Marlatt, Republican State Senator for District 27, resigned today after being arrested and charged with sexual battery after apparently groping an Uber driver. So, I guess that means we are getting another Oklahoma special election.

[Ebsy]

Bryce Marlatt, Republican State Senator for District 27, resigned today after being arrested and charged with sexual battery after apparently groping an Uber driver. So, I guess that means we are getting another Oklahoma special election.

Jesus Christ. Is this like the 6th OK special?

I think it would be 8 this year. They also could potentially leave the seat open until 2018.

[Ebsy]

Looking good for Democrat Charlie St. Clair in Belknap 9.

[Ebsy]

John DiStaso‏ @jdistaso  11s12 seconds ago
Unofficial @NHHouseofReps special: Laconia Ward 4: St. Clair (D) 175; Whalley (R) 119 #nhpolitics #WMUR

[Ebsy]

John DiStaso‏ @jdistaso  2m2 minutes ago
Unofficial @NHHouseofReps special election results: Belmont: Whalley (R) 224; St. Clair (D) 216 #nhpolitics #WMUR

Trump won this precinct by 25 points.

[Ebsy]

Kevin Landrigan‏ @KlandriganUL  45s45 seconds ago
That's three in a row; Charlie St. Clair wins Laconia Ward 5, 100-64, needs a firewall cuz Steve Whalley will win Belmont. #nhpolitics

[Ebsy]

D+1.

[Ebsy]

John DiStaso‏ @jdistaso  20 seconds ago
In heavily GOP Laconia Ward 6, unofficially it's Democrat St. Claire 232; Republican Whalley 183 #nhpolitics #WMUR

[Ebsy]

Kevin Landrigan‏ @KlandriganUL 4 minutes ago
Big win for Democrat Charlie St. Clair, 1,267-1,009 over Republican Steve Whalley in Belknap NH House special election. #nhpolitics

[Ebsy]

Democrats win Belknap 9 56 to 44, so by 12 points, and comparing that to Trump winning the district by 17 last year, we get a 29 point swing, and a 18 point swing from the state house result in 2016.

[Ebsy]

D+1.

[Ebsy]

Man the GOP is getting massacred tonight.

[Ebsy]

I suspect that these insane showings in Oklahoma mostly have to do with national trends compounded by the fact that apparently the entire Oklahoma GOP are a bunch of sex perverts. Hard to find a state party with a worse brand right now.

[Ebsy]

Finally, MS Data:

House District 102 Special Election
25% OF PRECINCTS REPORTING
    Missy McGee (I)   497   38%
    Kathryn Rehner (I)   446   34%
    Casey Mercier (I)   207   16%
    Cory Ferraez (I)   167   13%

Remember, runoff if no one reaches 50%.

There are 12 precincts in this district so I imagine it is 3/12 reporting. Hard to say what the results mean without knowing which precincts are reporting.

[Ebsy]

3/6 of the Democrats wins have been in Oklahoma this year.

Are they all in Tulsa/OKC big city areas? Or is it more spread out in rural areas as well?

I remember them coming super close in a rural seat, but I think all of the wins have been in the cities.

[Ebsy]

The Hattiesburg Post‏ @HattiesburgPost
With all precincts reporting, Ferraez 293, McGee 1,359, Mercier 685, Rehner 762.

Looks like it will be McGee (GOP) and Rehner (DEM) in the runoff.