State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Ebsy]

Pretty excited for HD-50 on Tuesday. Hopefully Skelton does well.

[Ebsy]

Anyone find a results page for Missouri tonight?

http://enr.sos.mo.gov/

SOS website. Usually AP is ahead of them but I do not know if AP will be tracking it tonight.

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

[Ebsy]

Absentee ballots in MO HD-50:

Michela Skelton (D)   195   
Sara Walsh (R)   81

Woohoo!

Is absentee voting not a a regular thing in MO? This seems like very low numbers

There is no early voting in Missouri, just absentee ballots that have to be mailed out and returned.

[Ebsy]

In a further sign of the demise of the Missouri Democratic Party, I am ready to project that Republicans have won the 50th district special election:

State Representative - District 50           18 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   1,409   60.214%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   931   39.786%
Total Votes:   2,340   

lol

[Ebsy]

In a further sign of the demise of the Missouri Democratic Party, I am ready to project that Republicans have won the 50th district special election:

State Representative - District 50           18 of 27 Precincts Reported
Sara Walsh   Republican   1,409   60.214%
Michela Skelton   Democratic   931   39.786%
Total Votes:   2,340   

Well McCaskill only won the district by 5 points in 2012 as she was winning by 16 points statewide, so expecting a pickup here was kind of ridiculous.

I didn't go into it expecting a pick up but Skelton can still win. Even if she doesn't, it looks like it is going to be much closer than the partisan lean of the district.

[Ebsy]

Just 300 votes short.

[Ebsy]

So much for the district being noncompetitive. This is a major overperformance downballot considering the inelasticity of the district. 17 point swing.

[Ebsy]

So much for the district being noncompetitive. This is a major overperformance downballot considering the inelasticity of the district. 16 point swing.

Considering it's only 9 points net worse than McCaskill's performance (and about matches what she got in vote share) it's not bad for MO Dems at all.

If this result is replicated, there will be quite a few more Democrats in the State House of Representatives in 2019.

Skelton actually outperformed Kander by about 4 points in this district, if you can believe that.

[Ebsy]

Democrats only need 54 seats in the House to break the supermajority, and they held 46 after 2016. Definitely doable, but it is hard without winning a few rural seats in the Lead Belt, Jefferson County, the bootheel, and northeastern Missouri.

[Ebsy]

32 point swing from the 2016 presidential results.

[Ebsy]

Obama won IA HD-82 50-48 in 2012 so this is a fantastic performance for Democrats.

[Ebsy]

Polls closed in Rhode Island, still looking around for results.

[Ebsy]

Shenanigans afoot in Rhode Island SD 13. Apparently half of a batch of mail ballots have been embargoed because they were all notarized by the same person.

[Ebsy]

From the counted mail ballots: https://twitter.com/JohnMarionjr/status/900148205052186626

John Marion‏ @JohnMarionjr  2m2 minutes ago
More
 Mail ballot totals for District 13: Euer 181, Smith 78, other 2.

So,

Euer (DEM): 181
Smith (GOP): 78

[Ebsy]

The seat was a 65-30 Clinton seat, 65-33 Obama.

[Ebsy]

Euer has won by a lot, not seeing a good source on the exact numbers however.

Edit: Looks like it is going to end up being around 60-40.

[Ebsy]

Do we have actual vote totals?

I think I saw election day vote totals but nothing final from election day and vote by mail due to the embargoed ballots.

Euer (DEM): 1811
Smith (GOP): 1217
Larson (GRE): 19
Ripoli (LIB): 71

[Ebsy]

Not every candidate is going to overpeform Clinton's margin, especially not in districts that are safe. That why it is useful to look at more than one data point.

[Ebsy]

Next up is New Hampshire HD Grafton 9 on September 5. It was 50-48 Obama in 2012 and 55-40 Trump in 2016. However, in 2016 the Democratic nominee in the upcoming special election, Joshua Adjutant, almost beat incumbent Robert Hall. This seat is vacant following Republican Jeff Shackett's resignation.

Candidates:

Joshua Adjutant (DEM)
Vincent Migliore (GOP)
John J. Babiarz (LIB)

Definitely a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/902592570571751425

Daily Kos Elections‏  @DKElections
GOP state Sen. Hunter Hill resigns to focus on #GAgov bid. Dems could win his 56-40 Clinton seat in special election

[Ebsy]

Next week NH-Grafton-HD-9

Adjutant (D) vs. Migliore (R) vs. Babiarz (L)
Republican-held seat, Obama/Trump seat.

I'll be keeping an eye out for results tonight. Usually they can be found on twitter before anywhere else.

[Ebsy]

Might just be election day votes as well. Absentees are sometimes counted separately, so who knows.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, but usually the democrat does the best in the early vote. Not always, but if that is the case, this is over.

What I meant is that those votes might not include the early vote. The numbers reported are close to the total expected vote so it obviously includes the election day vote.

[Ebsy]

Either way, looking like a big swing toward the Democratic Party.