absentee/early vote thread, part 2

[Ebsy]

Well, Ralston obviously wants to see Clinton, Masto and other Democrats win, but I don't know if he's wrong. Let's just wait and see.

I agree, I hate when people assume how people voted because of the letter by their name or on their voter cards...

That's a concern in some states, but not Nevada.

[Ebsy]

Uh, Ralston isn't a Democrat.  He pretty clearly does not like Hillary Clinton (even if he probably prefers her to Trump).  He's also been very negative about Harry Reid.  I think he just hates all politicians.  I don't get the impression that he cares very much about the fortunes of Heck versus Cortez Masto.

Ralston likes competitive races because it makes him more important.

[Ebsy]

Franklin County early voting is up from 2012

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591558/-In-person-early-vote-record-in-Franklin-County-OH-Columbus

But I thought early voting turnout in Democratic counties in Ohio had collapsed?!?!?! Oh wait just the bed wetters again.

[Ebsy]

I very well could be wrong, but considering that the big Democratic counties in Ohio are making up a larger share of the early vote than they usually do, does this mean that republican early voting is low in their Ohio counties?

[Ebsy]

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https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/794959598457327616?lang=de

i hope this could be communicated to the voting lines ASAP....

This seems like really odd timing for an NC rally. Early voting finished a little while ago.

There's still election day, with a couple million more people voting there ...

Right, but why schedule the morning rally for FL and the afternoon event for NC, when if you did it the other way you could drive early voting in both places instead of just one?

And as others have noted, going to Reno the day after early voting ends in NV is just as dumb...

Like I have stated, I very much doubt Trump has any sort of coherent strategy and it just jetting around to confuse the press and create the appearance of a campaign in motion.

[Ebsy]

A really terrible CNN poll is not the solidest of evidence for your little theory here champ.

[Ebsy]

lol

[Ebsy]

Duval is incredibly important for the GOP in Florida.

[Ebsy]

GOP just took the lead in CO

http://kdvr.com/2016/11/04/republicans-overtake-democrats-in-early-voting/

Democrats retook the lead:

https://twitter.com/MagellanStrat/status/794951566499442688

David Flaherty ‏@MagellanStrat  2h2 hours ago
CO Returned Ballot Report Update http://buff.ly/2f4NZsv  Democrats regain lead in ballots returned by 133. It's a battle folks!

[Ebsy]

Black turnout isn't low though, so I have a hard time taking your conclusions seriously when you have built them from patently false assumptions.

[Ebsy]

The cherrypicking is unreal.

Absentee voting in Michigan has always heavily favored Republicans and Democrats win on the election day vote.

[Ebsy]

You keep referencing that black turnout is substantially down in Florida and North Carolina but the data doesn't really support that. I will grant that there have been some instances of absentee balloting being weak in African American communities, but these trends have been reversed once early voting started (in Ohio, North Carolina and Florida), and though Michigan doesn't have early voting, the vast majority of the vote there is cast on election day and that vote is always heavily Democratic.

[Ebsy]

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But black people aren't voting! Ralstonsucks told me!

[Ebsy]

Duval County (FL) as we speak:

GOP: 114,461
DEM: 114,351
IND: 43,510

Dems could take the lead in Duval before the polls close at 6 PM Eastern

Woah if true.

[Ebsy]

Good news all around.

[Ebsy]

What exactly are the figures relating to the black vote in North Carolina that you are freaking out over?

[Ebsy]

According to the 2012 exit poll, the African American share of the vote was 23%. If African American turnout matches that number on election day, then there isn't much to be worried about, and the decrease in share of the early vote mostly comes from increased participation from white and other voters that would have voted in election day anyway, along with the noticeable surge in Latino turnout across the board. Nothing to freak out about at this point.

[Ebsy]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

[Ebsy]

Absolute numbers matter if the increases in the white early vote are mostly just election day cannibalization, which looks incredible likely.

Mkay ... and do you think the Blacks will suddenly turn out in full force on election day or what ?

That's not how it works.

Early voting in general is obviously becoming much more popular, but African American voters were already over-utilizing early voting in reference to their share of the population, so they were pretty much already maxed out in terms of early voting and thus couldn't really expand their number as more white voters took advantage. Considering the high number of white voters that have been "High propensity" and thus have voted in the past 3 elections, most of this expansion in white early voters has been people that used to vote on election day deciding to vote early.

[Ebsy]

Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Lots of evidence Latinos' strength for Clinton being understated by polls, w/ big potential implications in AZ/CO/FL/NV.

Any news on Iowa? EV was looking decent, not as good as O and likely headed for a close call........last i heard 42k Dem lead, which comparing to 2012 would be a razor thin election night result.

LAtest poll has Trump by 7....?

Not a lot of Latino's in Iowa

There are more than you might think but probably not enough turnout to actually impact a statewide race.

[Ebsy]

Not really sure what to make of that graph other than Clinton seems to be gaining more college educated whites than she lost with noncollege whites.

[Ebsy]

Expect Colorado to shift majorly as we get closer and closer to the election. Everything I have seen so far indicates Clinton is far ahead in the early vote there.

[Ebsy]

I mean, what is occurring in Colorado is basically both parties voting equal to their registration, with Republicans having fallen in registration since 2012 so that Democrats now narrowly lead. In that context, Democrats are well positioned to win the state rather easily.

[Ebsy]

daniel a. smith ‏@electionsmith  2m2 minutes ago
In Florida in 2012, 44% of whites waited to vote until ED; 50.5% of Hispanics; 35.2% of blacks.

Yeah, that will lead to a strong election day performance by Trump alright.

There is little reason to believe that these numbers will be replicated on election day. I don't think there are enough white voters in the state for that to occur.

[Ebsy]

Daniel A. Smith wrote something up on cannibalizing the vote in FL:

https://electionsmith.wordpress.com/2016/11/06/on-cannibalizing-the-vote-in-florida-heres-some-data-natesilver538-nate_cohn-to-work-into-your-models/

This is very important.