The absentee/early vote thread

[Ebsy]

Ralston loves to scaremonger about the GOP beating Democratic turnout in Clark County.

[Ebsy]

The 2016 electorate is going to look nothing like the 2014 electorate.

[Ebsy]

NC-re-alignment:

according to a right-wing-think tank - last summer:

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https://www.nccivitas.org/2016/ncs-voter-registration-upheaval-2012-2016/

compared to the 2012 election there are now 145000 registered democrats less...and 20000 registered republicans more.


https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=11-03-2012
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-29-2016

unaff are the biggest difference by far.

lol

Civitas are not very smart.

[Ebsy]

I feel the need to point out to those of you that appear to have 0 institutional knowledge: fewer REGISTERED Democrats =! fewer Democratic voters in North Carolina.

[Ebsy]

Is high turnout in the WOW counties really good news for Trump? My impression was that he's relatively weak for a Republican in those counties, and that he would be stronger in the more rural NW parts of the state and in Green Bay.

This could be the case.

[Ebsy]

henster's concern trolling is entering new territory. Go away troll.

[Ebsy]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

[Ebsy]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

On the whole, I agree with you. The point that asmith's chart brings up is that, with the same amount of time to Election Day, the demos are worse looking (more whites, less blacks, not enough Latinx to make up the difference). There may be built in logical fallacies for comparing by "x days out", but if there aren't, they are a bit weak. That said, party numbers and polls have been good, so maybe white vote is going the way we want.

There are no working class white Democrats in Florida and North Carolina for Clinton to lose, so she is going to be gaining considerably with white college educated voters, especially women, in the suburbs of both states with little to no downside. Also, turnout is extremely high in the Latino portions of Southern Florida, leading me to believe that the unthinkable will happen again and Miami-Dade County will further swing towards Democrats.

[Ebsy]

I don't know what you guys don't get about the fact that Democrats vote later than Republicans. The numbers in North Carolina and Florida do not look bad (quite the opposite) and Clinton isn't reliant on record African American turnout because she is doing better among both white and Latino voters in both states.

We're talking about a 10-point drop here. I'm OK with not having "record African-American turnout", but this looks like we're going back to the 90s.

I can guarantee that there isn't going to be a 40% drop in African American turnout if that is what you are wondering lol.

[Ebsy]

40% drop...don't be ridicolous.

10-15% sounds more likely.

Probably a fraction of that, maybe to the tune of 2 points nationally (66=>64). The national polls (which, you know, try to be accurate) are not showing the electorate as if it is going to be 10 points whiter than 2012. Also, every national poll has Clinton doing considerably better with whites than Obama did against Romney, so there doesn't seem to be a point to freaking out about this.

[Ebsy]

I mean, you are all basically ignoring that this exact same day was the worst for the Democrats in 2012.

[Ebsy]

Like I said in the Comeygate monstrosity thread, you people need to get a grip. Every little fluctuation in the early vote is not necessarily significant or harks the end of democracy.

[Ebsy]

The reason Democrats are getting so nervous is they inherently know Clinton is so unlikable, her support buttressed by loathing of Trump as the greater evil is only an inch deep. If it cracks, it sinks hard into the 40's.

I don't think that's what's happening here, but the fright is somewhat understandable (albeit still mostly over the top).

could be wrong but there have been tons of fear and doubt and panic in 2012 and obama is anything but not likable.

Badger's argument doesn't make any sense even on its own merits. Polling has shown that a much larger share of Clinton's supporters are voting for her to support her than say the same about Trump.