Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Ebsy]

Sanders is getting murdered everywhere but New Mexico right now.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, Sanders is probably going to drop out sometime in the next two weeks.

[Ebsy]

So it looks like we won't be getting an extremely late Sanders surge in California.

[Ebsy]

VBM ballots received before the election > Election day vote > VBM ballots received latter > provisionals.

[Ebsy]

I do believe they count provisionals only after all main-in votes have been counted, right? So I'd expect Clinton's margin to expand after all main-in votes are counted, then it should tighten a bit again after counting whichever provisionals they ultimately end up counting. But I believe this whole process will take quite a few weeks.

There's not really any rush.

[Ebsy]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

[Ebsy]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

[Ebsy]

Clinton: 2,211,549 (55.5%)
Sanders: 1,734,922 (43.6%)

[Ebsy]

Oakland for Sanders?!? WOW

Gentrification along with a young population.

[Ebsy]

Really glad to see that the autism research grants have been paying impressive dividends.

[Ebsy]

The final margin of victory for Clinton indicates that the California race wasn't a toss up, and all the polls showing a close race were badly off the mark, way outside the margin of error. This is why we use a polling average people!

[Ebsy]

Benchmark gets to boast again. They said Clinton 54-46 for a couple of weeks before the California primary

Benchmark is total crap...

They throw a few darts at a dartboard and occasionally hit a "20" on their demographic models and then claim they are brilliant...

Sigh...

I pity the poor sods that sent them $20 for their forum rebuild, in order to claim that they were right in a handful of Democratic primaries, despite the huge prediction collapse in many other states.

I could easily pull something similar together off of census info and then mix that with PVI and claim to be the "New 538" and offer a subscription service for the GE, to make a few bucks to pay the rent...

Their model was consistently good on a statewide level but terrible on the countywide level.