Hillary's not going to do as well with any minority group when compared to Obama because she is not a minority. I don't know why this is so hard to understand. Even other black candidates for statewide and federal office haven't been able to pull the numbers that Obama did nationally (93-96%, depending on the election and state). Virtually every non-Obama candidate in recent history gets 90% of the black vote. Hillary will too. The whole shtick of "the Republicans have been super bad toward blacks in the past few years and Obama levels of support are going to hold" (not necessarily mentioned in this thread, but it's out there) is ridiculous. They've been bad toward them for decades. The real question is: what will turnout look like?
Latinos and Asians are going to swing back, too, so let's not kid ourselves. It might only be to 2008 levels, but we're way out of sync with where their levels of support should be. These groups are not on their way to becoming new equivalents of the black vote in terms of support. Especially if the Republicans nominate someone who isn't a complete racist in appearance, the combination of party fatigue, her stuffiness, her race, her gender (which will affect non-white male voters to a degree, just as it will white male voters), and the historical deviation from the mean all paint the same picture.
The real question, perhaps, is whether a potential swing towards Hillary in the white female vote (and to a lesser degree, the non-white female vote) will cancel out these effects, and if not entirely, by how much.
If the Republican primary goes as conservatives are planning, Latinos will be voting heavily Democratic the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November of 2016. I doubt Latinos are going to forget Obama's executive orders on immigration, which are very popular. Latinos swinging towards the GOP in 2014 was largely due to the feeling that Democrats(Obama) had not done anything to stop deportations. Uncompromising support among Republican candidates to roll the executive actions back will not win many votes among Latinos, but not supporting rolling them back would be poisonous among Republicans in the primary and the general.
