CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[100% pro-life no matter what]

This is honestly in the territory of doing so well that I wonder whether we would have flipped the House if we didn't kind of write it off.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

The NYT now has Miller-Meeks (R) up by 36 votes in IA-2

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Just interesting how there are more red avatars in the Presidential result thread and more blue avatars in this thread.

I was about to say, seems like a party's thrown whenever a Republican wins a seat in here. Probably just the Dems focusing on Presidential race, which they won, and Reps focusing on Congress, where they overperformed.

Yeah, I'm definitely enjoying following the late Congressional reports than the late presidential ones.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any news on CA-25? It'd be weird if this is the one Republicans lost in Southern California given their other successes, but Smith seems to have the upper hand. I know that Ventura County isn't completely in, but I don't think Garcia has a 1300 vote gain there.

On a separate note, is CA-34 included in the 218 for Democrats? The race isn't called, but it's two Democrats against each other.

I believe it is included

[100% pro-life no matter what]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

I think CA-34 is already in the Democrats' total of 218, because there are 16 races out there not counting it:

CA- 21, 25, 39
NY- 1, 2, 3, 11, 18, 19, 22, 24
UT-4
AK-1
IA-2
IL-14
LA-5

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Of the 14 uncalled seats by the NY Times, here they are from most to least confident that we will win:

204. LA-5 Runoff
205. NY-1
206. NY-24
207. NY-11
208. NY-2
209. UT-4
210. CA-21
211. IA-2
212. NY-22
213. NJ-7
214. CA-25
215. NY-3
216. NY-18
217. NY-19

Frankly, something crazy happening with late ballots in some other CA or NJ race is probably more likely than the last two...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Something of note is that, even if the 214 map happens, we weren't actually that close to 218 because we would have won all the razor-thin races.  In fact, you have to go more than 2 points to get to MN-2, which appears to be the tipping point House race right now (IL-14, IA-3, and VA-7 being 215-217).  I suppose it is possible that one of the called NJ or CA districts winds up supplanting the 2.2 point Democratic win in MN-2 or that NY-3 stays within that margin.  Most of the close Democratic wins were in the 3-4 point range, while the Republicans may just about sweep the razor-thin margin races.

Closest Democratic Victories (leaving out NJ/CA/NY seats due to still very unclear margins):
1. IL-14: Underwood +1.0
2. IA-3: Axne +1.4
3. VA-7: Spanberger +1.8
4. MN-2: Craig +2.2
4. PA-17: Lamb +2.2
6. WI-3: Kind +2.8
7. TX-15: Gonzalez +2.9
8. TX-7: Fletcher +3.2
9. PA-8: Cartwright +3.4
9. AZ-1: O'Halleran +3.4
11. WA-8: Schrier +3.6
12. IL-17: Bustos +3.8
12. NV-3: Lee +3.8
12. PA-7: Wild +3.8
12. GA-7: Bordeaux +3.8

So, there were 15 seats (plus whatever NY/NJ/CA Democratic seats wind up in that threshold) that Democrats won by less than 4 points, but only 3 of those were decided by less than 2 points.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How will that tipping point-seat ultimately vote relative to the national popular vote for the House?

It's unclear, but probably still somewhat to the right of it.  Currently, the NYT has it at D+2.1, but that should grow somewhat.  The tipping point is right now looking to be MN-2/PA-17 at D+2.2, but I imagine that the final NPV is more like D+2.5-3.0.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

https://twitter.com/TraversWDSU/status/1328443269576077318

Not surprised by it! Richmond was with Joe Biden from the beginning and he would just be a backbencher in the House.

Republican odds to win the 2021 Congressional Baseball Game would go way up

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hopefully that's it, because any other dump probably puts Brindisi over the top

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What this election deserved...and was not that far from having happen would have been for this IA-2 race to end in an exact tie while the Republicans won a few more close races, leaving the House at 217-217, to be decided on a coin flip.  Simultaneously, Trump should have done a little over half a point better across the board, narrowly holding Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin.  Democrats win both runoffs in Georgia with the assumption that the House will re-elect Trump.

House: 217-217
Senate: 50-50
Electoral College: 269-269

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Taken from my Williamson County thread, here is a comparison of how congressional Republicans outperformed Trump in Williamson County, TN.  The TL/DR version is that congressional Republicans outperformed the most in areas of the county that were both very wealthy and long-established suburbia.  On the other hand, they overperformed the least in rural areas and (surprisingly) some fast-growing areas just joining the suburban core.

*All percentages are two-party vote.