I believe Trump won Clarksville, TN in 2016, and I suspect he will do it again. Trends from the 2020 Congressional primaries looked pretty favorable in Montgomery County. If Biden wins Clarksville, he'll probably also be winning Knoxville and Murfreesboro, which would leave Franklin as the largest city in Tennessee to vote for Trump.
Hello Friend--- long time no chat!
You ran the precinct numbers from Clarksville a few years back on another thread on the 2016 GE results and placed it as 49.4% Trump and 44.4% HRC...
So curious about your thoughts on Clarksville since if Biden ends up winning nationally by +6-8% at min it looks like the type of joint which should flip.
Why do you suspect Trump will hold Clarksville in 2020?
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272471.msg5832944#msg5832944
I haven't updated it yet for the Election Day results, but I looked at our congressional primary turnout by county, comparing it to the Trump-Clinton numbers. Statewide, Tennessee voted for Trump by 26 points, and Republican primary voters outnumbered Democratic ones by 24 points (as we have open primaries, there isn't a registration bias). So, TN swung left by 2 points. On the other hand, Montgomery County, where Clarksville is, went right from Trump +18 to Republicans +30, a very significant swing right. I do recognize that local factors can influence the numbers somewhat (i.e. Davidson swinging super far left due to a competitive Democratic primary for TN-5), but it's still a worthwhile exercise.
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=384444.msg7491155#msg7491155
