Potential TN trends based on 2020 Congressional primary turnout

[100% pro-life no matter what]

As of now, the overall turnout through the first week of early voting is 61.7% R - 36.7% D in our open primaries.  The 25.07 point Republican advantage isn't far off from Trump's 2016 margin of 26.0 points, so I thought it might be interesting to look at some major counties in these primaries versus in the 2016 presidential election as a potential preview of trends.

Big 4 Urban Counties:
Davidson (Nashville)-
2016: Clinton +26
2020: Democrats +46
Swing: D+20

Shelby (Memphis)-
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Democrats +25
Swing: R+2

Knox (Knoxville)-
2016: Trump +24
2020: Republicans +28
Swing: R+4

Hamilton (Chattanooga)-
2016: Trump +16
2020: Republicans +11
Swing: D+5

Major Suburban Counties:
Rutherford (Murfreesboro, Nashville SE)-
2016: Trump +26
2020: Republicans +26
Swing: R+0

Williamson (Franklin, Nashville S)-
2016: Trump +35
2020: Republicans +35
Swing: Unclear +0 (both were 35.01%, and I don't feel like calculating 2016 beyond that)

Wilson (Lebanon, Nashville E)-
2016: Trump +44
2020: Republicans +42
Swing: D+2

Minor Metros/Hardeman and Haywood (the two non-urban counties that aren't Titanium R):
Montgomery (Clarksville)-
2016: Trump +18
2020: Republicans +31
Swing: R+13

Putnam (Cookeville)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +53
Swing: R+8

Madison (Jackson)-
2016: Trump +15
2020: Republicans +14
Swing: D+1

Washington (Johnson City)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +73
Swing: R+28

Haywood (1 of the 3 Clinton counties in TN, majority Black)-
2016: Clinton +10
2020: Democrats +9
Swing: R+1

Hardeman (Obama-Trump county with a significant Black population)-
2016: Trump +8
2020: Republicans +10
Swing: R+2

[100% pro-life no matter what]

While this is pretty noisy, and primary turnout can vary based on local factors, I think it looks very likely that Davidson will have the furthest leftward trend in the state.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Ig just cut Nashville a bunch.  Maybe 4 ways.

I agree that that's likely, but if Davidson County suddenly did go from 60% Clinton to 70%+ Biden, I could see Republicans having pause, particularly if Trump's margins also were to shrink in Rutherford and/or Williamson Counties (but, both seem to be holding up OK in these numbers).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Is Eastern TN one of the densest populated regions for the GOP in the country or is that just how I perceive it from the shapes of the districts?

Eastern TN has quite a few midsized cities--the Tri Cities in the far East, and Knoxville and Chattanooga closer in to the center of the state. Both are extremely Republican relative to most cities their size, so yeah. That said there's still a lot of rural areas in Eastern Tennessee.

Why are these cities so Republican - and seem to be trending that way as well. I know they were historically Republican, but do they not have any demographic appeal to Democrats even with the shifts we are seeing post-Trump?

Most cities shifted towards Trump though in 2016, Clinton only ran ahead of Obama in metro areas with 1 million plus people, in plenty of smaller cities, including those with a few hundred thousand people there was a big shift towards Republicans, in the Trump era in 2016 at least only metros with 1 million plus moved towards democrats, not smaller cities.

Hamilton and Knox Counties both did trend D in 2016, although Hamilton did swing slightly R.  Chattanooga itself is moderately Democratic, but it's outvoted by its suburbs within Hamilton County.  Knoxville itself is a very light blue that could be won narrowly by a suburban-friendly Republican winning nationally, but it's borders are pretty narrow (whereas Nashville and Davidson County were merged a while back), and it's overwhelmingly outvoted by its suburbs.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Updating the numbers for the final early voting totals (except for Sullivan County, which hasn't reported its last day).  As a whole, the cities look much bluer than they did at the early report, while the suburbs look slightly redder than they did before (Williamson is now showing a significant R trend).  Small metros seem to be a mixed bag in terms of their change, but it isn't much from before.

Relative to 2016, it looks like East Tennessee is more Republican, Middle Tennessee is more Republican except in Nashville (where it's MUCH more Democratic), and West Tennessee is slightly more Democratic.  Biden may have a shot to carry West Tennessee, which is a marginal Obama-Trump Grand Division.

Statewide-
2016: Trump +26
2020: Republicans +24
Swing: D+2 (was D+0)

Big 4 Urban Counties:
Davidson (Nashville)-
2016: Clinton +26
2020: Democrats +47
Swing: D+21

Shelby (Memphis)-
2016: Clinton +27
2020: Democrats +34
Swing: D+7

Knox (Knoxville)-
2016: Trump +24
2020: Republicans +25
Swing: R+1

Hamilton (Chattanooga)-
2016: Trump +16
2020: Republicans +10
Swing: D+6

Major Suburban Counties:
Rutherford (Murfreesboro, Nashville SE)-
2016: Trump +26
2020: Republicans +23
Swing: D+3

Williamson (Franklin, Nashville S)-
2016: Trump +35
2020: Republicans +39
Swing: R+4

Wilson (Lebanon, Nashville E)-
2016: Trump +44
2020: Republicans +45
Swing: R+1

Minor Metros/Hardeman and Haywood (the two non-urban counties that aren't Titanium R):
Montgomery (Clarksville)-
2016: Trump +18
2020: Republicans +30
Swing: R+12

Putnam (Cookeville)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +57
Swing: R+12

Madison (Jackson)-
2016: Trump +15
2020: Republicans +15
Swing: D+0

Washington (Johnson City)-
2016: Trump +45
2020: Republicans +73 (86.2% R is truly crazy for a county of this size)
Swing: R+28

Haywood (1 of the 3 Clinton counties in TN, majority Black)-
2016: Clinton +10
2020: Democrats +12
Swing: D+2

Hardeman (Obama-Trump county with a significant Black population)-
2016: Trump +8
2020: Republicans +7
Swing: D+1