Predict Trump's Margin in Williamson County, TN

[100% pro-life no matter what]

2012: 73-26 Romney (51 points to the right of the nation as a whole)
2016: 64-29-4 Trump (37 points to the right of the nation as a whole)
2018: 65-34 Green (39 points to the right of the nation as a whole)

This is a wealthy, suburban, heavily Evangelical county that has often voted Republican by massive margins.  Trump's margin was weakened substantially, but, unlike other suburbs, it did trend slightly Republican in 2018, especially relative to the State of Tennessee.

I can't see Trump equaling Romney's 2012 performance here, but I could see him getting back to the two-thirds threshold.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

That's pretty dark red in Williamson County.





I'm thinking somewhere between the 2018 Governor and Senate races. 61-36-3 feels about right. I expect continued bleeding against Republicans in suburbs across the country.

Yeah, but those trends are from 2012 and 2014 which were lightly contested races in Tennessee.  Williamson from 2016 to 2018 did move to the right relative to the state as a whole in all races and relative to the nation as a whole in all but the Senate race.