2018 GE PRECINCT RESULTS Posted by State Election Offices

[100% pro-life no matter what]

@NOVA Green:

I'm sure I will look more at other places later, but I will start with my home turf of Williamson County.

The two areas in Williamson County that I have been the most curious about possible D-trends are the areas of Brentwood near the Davidson border and the Cool Springs area of Franklin due to numerous new developments and the sense that it's becoming proto-urban with apartments and office buildings.

At first glance, the governor's race looks pretty much like 2016 in these areas.  Like Donald Trump did, Bill Lee won every precinct in Williamson County (and did not have the two-vote nail-biter just to the Northeast of Downtown Franklin like Trump did- Lee won that by 62 votes).

Bredesen, on the other hand, did flip two Williamson County precincts (using the two party vote):

Precinct 10-2 (Northeast of Downtown Franklin, the precinct Trump nearly lost): 57-43 Bredesen
Precinct 11-2 (Downtown Franklin): 54-46 Bredesen

Downtown Franklin had a massive divide between the two races, with Bill Lee carrying it 55-45.  If Bredesen had been able to get the same proportion of Lee voters that he got in the heart of downtown Franklin (now, downtown isn't really where most people live in Franklin, but it's still interesting), he would come very close to winning.

Brentwood (the legal Brentwood/Franklin border doesn't match up with precincts, so I am going to use all precincts within Districts 6 and 7 for Brentwood):
2018-GOV: 65-35 Lee
2018-SEN: 58-42 Blackburn
2018-REP: 66-34 Green
2018-STSEN: 67-33 Johnson
2016-PRES: 67-33 Trump

Brentwood PVI Relative to Statewide:
2018-GOV: R+9
2018-SEN: R+6
2016-PRES: R+7

Cool Springs: Again, the boundaries aren't perfect (and Cool Springs isn't a legal entity), but I'm using Precincts 4-1, 4-3, 8-2, and 12-1 for it.
2018-GOV: 62-38 Lee
2018-SEN: 56-44 Blackburn
2018-REP: 62-38 Green
2018-STSEN: 63-37 Johnson
2016-PRES: 66-34 Trump

Cool Springs State PVI:
2018-GOV: R+3
2018-SEN: R+0.4
2016-PRES: R+6

Downtown Franklin: (Precinct 11-2):
2018-GOV: 55-45 Lee
2018-SEN: 54-46 Bredesen
2018-REP: 53-47 Green
2018-STSEN: 54-46 Johnson
2016-PRES:  53-47 Trump

Williamson County vs. Tennessee:
2018-GOV: Williamson: R+32, Tennessee R+21 (Williamson R+11)
2018-SEN: Williamson: R+18, Tennessee R+11 (Williamson R+8 due to rounding)
2016-PRES: Williamson: R+35, Tennessee: R+26 (Williamson R+9)

So, other than maybe the Cool Springs area, it actually seems that any swings to the left in Williamson County halted and maybe slightly reversed themselves in 2018.  Both in the wealthiest parts of Brentwood and county-wide, 2018 Republican-Democrat margins were virtually identical to the Trump-Clinton margins in the county.  Cool Springs does not appear to have the massive growth in voter turnout that I thought it might, as Brentwood actually had higher turnout relative to 2016 than Cool Springs did (Brentwood had 104% of the R+D voters as 2016, so probably about 100% factoring in third-parties, while Cool Springs "only" had 101% of the 2016 R+D vote in 2018).  You can maybe see a slight trend in Cool Springs, which is probably younger and more transient than the rest of the county, but it's not massive or anything.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I found something even more noteworthy though:

It's unfortunately impossible to be certain because some, not all (155K voted early in Davidson County, but 47K are listed in this) early votes in Davidson County seem to be listed as "absentee" and not grouped by precinct (other counties do not have that problem), but Bredesen may have flipped famously Republican semi-autonomous neighborhood of Nashville, Belle Meade.  Belle Meade's official boundaries line up perfectly with Davidson precinct 23-4, which Blackburn is listed as having by 11 votes.  However, the "absentee" votes appear to be more Democratic, and, if enough are from Belle Meade, it may have flipped.

Only Davidson and Wilson (east suburbs of Nashville) Counties have this issue, but there is no way 47,000 people actually voted absentee in Nashville due to Tennessee's very strict absentee voting laws.  If Bredesen did win it, Cooper probably carried Belle Meade too, though Lee and Moody (defeated State House candidate in a district that flipped to the Democrats) certainly held it for the Republicans.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I found something even more noteworthy though:

It's unfortunately impossible to be certain because some, not all (155K voted early in Davidson County, but 47K are listed in this) early votes in Davidson County seem to be listed as "absentee" and not grouped by precinct (other counties do not have that problem), but Bredesen may have flipped famously Republican semi-autonomous neighborhood of Nashville, Belle Meade.  Belle Meade's official boundaries line up perfectly with Davidson precinct 23-4, which Blackburn is listed as having by 11 votes.  However, the "absentee" votes appear to be more Democratic, and, if enough are from Belle Meade, it may have flipped.

Only Davidson and Wilson (east suburbs of Nashville) Counties have this issue, but there is no way 47,000 people actually voted absentee in Nashville due to Tennessee's very strict absentee voting laws.  If Bredesen did win it, Cooper probably carried Belle Meade too, though Lee and Moody (defeated State House candidate in a district that flipped to the Democrats) certainly held it for the Republicans.

I found something even more noteworthy though:

It's unfortunately impossible to be certain because some, not all (155K voted early in Davidson County, but 47K are listed in this) early votes in Davidson County seem to be listed as "absentee" and not grouped by precinct (other counties do not have that problem), but Bredesen may have flipped famously Republican semi-autonomous neighborhood of Nashville, Belle Meade.  Belle Meade's official boundaries line up perfectly with Davidson precinct 23-4, which Blackburn is listed as having by 11 votes.  However, the "absentee" votes appear to be more Democratic, and, if enough are from Belle Meade, it may have flipped.

Only Davidson and Wilson (east suburbs of Nashville) Counties have this issue, but there is no way 47,000 people actually voted absentee in Nashville due to Tennessee's very strict absentee voting laws.  If Bredesen did win it, Cooper probably carried Belle Meade too, though Lee and Moody (defeated State House candidate in a district that flipped to the Democrats) certainly held it for the Republicans.

Interesting point--- not just because of those particular results you are looking at, but rather because of the example you are using shifts my perspective a bit about TN when it comes to wrapping EVs into a "Countywide Precinct Reporting Bundle", which tends to be most prevalent in places like SC and MS, rather than be properly redistributed back into the precinct in which the vote was cast.

This is something that I have consistently mentioned in various precinct level posts that I have made.

Elections are and should be about transparency, visibility, and the ability to audit results, just like Publicly Owned Corporations in the U.S.A.

Metrics and massive variances in statistical data modelling create noise, which helps protect our Democracy from unusual shifts.

Many times in the past when analyzing precinct data in certain states, I have commented about how some Counties and States tend to redistribute the results back to "County Pool", rather than breaking it down locally, and how precinct level metrics could be skewed because of the unknown "X-POT" of voters by County, that might well account for 25-45% of Voters in a given election in a given jurisdiction!

Personally, I think it should be Federal Law that all EVs should never be bundled by County and instead show up in the official precinct results for that county.

One Thought on the precinct thread, since there appears to be a growing interest in utilizing the tools and data available to us, would be potential cross-linking from various Statewide Megathreads (Such as TN, MS, & OR, etc...) so that it doesn't derail the intention of posting comprehensive precinct level details on this thread, while simultaneously providing a "database" to objectively be able to pull results without all of the subjectivity and partisan blinders that inevitability contaminate some of the State Level threads....

I'm still confused about what they are, because they only show up for two counties in the state and don't reach the full early voting total in Davidson either.  But, they were enough to flip a state House district in wealthy areas of Davidson County, where the incumbent Republican (the Speaker) retired to run for governor, and Democrats picked it up narrowly.