In the event TN loses a seat, here's what a Nashville split could look like:
1: Utterly safe eastern TN coal dirt seat. R+29, and another 10 years in Congress for Phil Roe (R) (insert Generic R if he dies).
2: Features the entirety of Knoxville and Maryville, heads south for population. R+21. Tim Burchett (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress) will have a long career here.
3: Nashville Split, Part A. Includes Western Davidson County and its western surburbs, then heads across the northern border until scooping south to touch district 2. R+14, and the home for Mark Green (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress).
4: This seat includes Nashville proper and is where Jim Cooper (D) would try to run for re-election, but the E-SE suburban skate it takes after leaving Nashville does not help him, as it takes the seat all the way to R+10. This would be a free-for-all in the republican primary, but whoever wins it would defeat Cooper or any other D in the general.
5: Skating from East Davidson through heavily republican suburbs, this will be home for John Rose (R) (known new Rep. in 116th congress). R+16.
6: This seat features the entirety of Chattanooga, and then goes West for population. At R+18, it's not competitive in the general election. But the 2022 primary would feature a YUGE battle as two republican incumbents live here - Chuck Flesichmann and Scott DesJarlais. Prepare for a nasty primary. Alternatively, one of them could carpetbag up to the 4th, but would risk losing the primary to a new, more local candidate.
7: This R+19 West TN seat is perfect for another 10 years of David Kustoff (R).
8: D+18 VRA. Safe Steve Cohen/generic Black D if he retires.
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Least Change from this if TN remains at 9 Reps is as follows: The 1st becomes even more trenched in the coal dirt, with its westernmost parts going into the second. The southernmost parts of the second end up in the sixth, the westernmost reaches of which become a new, 9th seat that would in theory be good for Mr. DesJarlais, but in practice the fact that he would live just outside of it might doom him in the primary. The seat is completed with parts of the 5th/8th. Adjust remaining lines as needed to reach uniform population.
I've never heard any talk of TN losing a seat. We should almost certainly stay at 9 this time, but growing to 10 in 2030 wouldn't shock me at all.
Here is a fairly neat map I drew that would be safely 8-1:
TN-1 (Blue, NE Tennessee): R+28
TN-2 (Green, Knoxville): R+19
TN-3 (Purple, Chattanooga): R+20
TN-4 (Red, Murfreesboro, Nashville): R+14
TN-5 (Yellow, Cookeville, Nashville): R+16
TN-6 (Teal, Franklin, Nashville): R+14
TN-7 (Gray, Clarksville, Nashville): R+14
TN-8 (Blue, Jackson/SW Tennessee): R+20
TN-9 (Cyan, Memphis): D+29
An insert of the split of Nashville, along with some key places/neighborhoods in each district:
TN-4: Antioch, Donelson, Grand Ole Opry/Opryland Hotel (R), Percy Priest Lake (R)
TN-5: East Nashville (hipster side of town), Germantown (majority black neighborhood north of downtown), Madison, parts of Goodlettsville
TN-6: Downtown Nashville, Vanderbilt/West End, Belmont, Lipscomb (maybe R in terms of the university as it is an evangelical Christian school, but there is enough around it that the voting area is D+2), Davidson County "Brentwood" (R), Belle Meade (R) Green Hills (R), The Gulch and 12th South (trendy yuppie neighborhoods), Edgehill (majority black), significant Hispanic populations along Nolensville Pike
TN-7: Bellevue (R), parts of Goodlettsville (R), parts of West End- including some areas near Vanderbilt, Sylvan Heights, majority Black neighborhoods N/W of downtown, less urbanized areas of Western and Northern Davidson County (R)
