AL-Fox News: DOUG +8

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Let's remember that this poll has Obama more popular than Trump and Strange doing even worse than Moore.  Tossup for now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

I wonder if the same holds true in the Rust Belt States Trump flipped.

Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota all had reverse age gaps in 2016 at the presidential level.

Southern Senate races 18-29 vote in 2016:
SC: Scott +10
GA: Barksdale +5
KY: Paul +14
NC: Ross +16

Compared to Rust Belt:
WI: Johnson +3
PA: McGinty +10
OH: TIE

[100% pro-life no matter what]

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D+35 Differential between those under 45 relative to those over 45. I would point out that Griffin found similar differentials in 2014 exit polling in GA, TX, MS and SC.

Young white Southerners ARE NOT Republican enough to keep the GOP above water. Generational change will pull the top line white vote down and these states will flip. Alabama might take the longest of that group to flip though. This is not the suburban massacre like in Virginia (which was mixture of natural generation change and in migration), though it certainly will manifest in the suburbs. This is native generational change against the back drop of an immovable object, the Democratic Vote among African Americans.

The assumption there is that people do not get more conservative as they age.  I would say that, while there are more conservative and more liberal generations, all generations become somewhat more Republican with age.  Also, Alabama's electorate isn't significantly less white at younger ages (unlike most other places), and the other poll with Jones up suggested that Trump actually won 18-24s in Alabama by more than he won the state as a whole, but that there are a huge number of Trump-->Jones or Trump --> Undecided/Not Voting young Alabamians.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

To be fair, I wouldn't really look too far into the 18-29 year old vote in most of these polls. Young people don't really turn out in offyear elections, and the ones that do this year will probably be a lot more democratic than young people as a whole.

Also low sample size for this group in polls.

Kind of like the reverse of how young voters voted for Cuccinelli in 2013 in Virginia and then voted overwhelmingly Northam this year?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Kind of like the reverse of how young voters voted for Cuccinelli in 2013 in Virginia and then voted overwhelmingly Northam this year?

Why are you saying things that are verifiably false? Lil' Rob Sarvis was stealing votes from McAuliffe, so that's why it looks "close". Don't act like Cuccinelli's weirdo social conservatism was in any way attractive to young people.

18-24s did, 45-39:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/05/va.gov.exit.polls.1120p.110513.v2.final[1].copy.pdf
https://www.politico.com/story/2013/11/ken-cuccinelli-bright-spot-young-voters-099568