State polls by age (user search)
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  State polls by age (search mode)
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Author Topic: State polls by age  (Read 4639 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: August 17, 2017, 10:40:48 PM »

The exit polls are reasonably accurate, and there are a couple strong trends:

-The age gap is much smaller in states that trended towards Trump and much larger in states that trended towards Clinton.  This is particularly evident in Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Kentucky, and Maine, which all had some form of "reverse age gaps", with youngs being more Republican than olds.

-The age gap is also much smaller in very white states and larger in states with lots of minorities (particularly lots of Hispanics).  What is likely happening is that, in very white states, the youngest voters are a lot more demographically similar to the oldest ones (it may also be true in states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas, where the white-black ratio has pretty much remained constant and that have no real trendy areas, although none of those were exit polled).  In states like Arizona and Texas, even if the youngest whites voted exactly like the oldest whites, there would still be a pretty significant age gap due to demographics, so that is important to keep in mind.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
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*****
Posts: 11,781


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: August 16, 2018, 10:30:40 PM »

Do we know if the age brackets in exit polls are properly weighted by race? (so each age bracket has the correct racial composition). If they aren't then that can produce some weird results, just because an age cohort is more or less White than it is supposed to be.

Florida's 2016 exit poll (particularly when looking at voters under 50) seems like a good example to suggest that age brackets aren't properly weighted by race, do these numbers make any sense at all otherwise?

18-24: Clinton leads 63-27
25-29: Trump leads 49-43
30-39: Clinton leads 56-38
40-49: Trump leads 50-46
50-64: Trump leads 55-43
65+: Trump leads 57-40
I am almost certain they are not race-weighted.

Fortunately, CNN, in its national sample, broke the white vote down by age. They found relatively little difference in support for Clinton by age, to wit:
18-29: 42D/48R
30-49: 37D/56R
50-64: 34D/63R
65+: 39D/59R

That might be hard to do accurately at the state level, though, except in large states like FL.

Unfortunately, we don't have this on presidential exit polling, but most polling data I have seen shows a very large gender gap with young white voters too, with young white men being overwhelmingly Republican, but young white women leaning Democrat.  It's true overall that men are more Republican, but it seems to be even more prominent with young voters.  It's also prominent with black voters (regardless of age), as congressional Republicans actually got nearly 20% of black men in 2016 but barely got any black women.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
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*****
Posts: 11,781


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2018, 05:23:08 PM »


2016:

PRES-
18-29: Sample size too small
30-44: Clinton 51-40
45-64: Clinton 50-42
65+: Clinton 46-45

For 18-29's, we can see that the 18-44 vote was Clinton +21 and 18-29's were only 3/8 of that group.  With 30-44's being only Clinton +11, you are probably looking at a massive Clinton win in 18-29's.  But, they might not have gotten enough to be confident in that in their sample, so take that with a grain of salt.

For Senate, all age groups were strongly Democratic, but 45-64's were actually the least Democratic.  That age cohort (particularly the older half of it) may have been liberal at one point, but it switched sides.  Whether today's young voters do so remains to be seen.

For reference, nationally, Clinton won the 18-29 vote by 19, but House Republicans were more competitive with it, only losing by 10.  Trump won white 18-29's by 4, but House Republicans won them by 10.  Possibly underreported was that House Republicans did better with young minorities than with old minorities, winning 15% of black 18-29's (vs. 10% of the overall black vote) and 31% of Hispanic 18-29's (in line with Hispanics under 65, but 65+ Hispanics are far more Democrat).
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