What state will have the largest GOP vote margin in 2020? (user search)
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  What state will have the largest GOP vote margin in 2020? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which state will the GOP win by the most votes?
#1
Texas
 
#2
Tennessee
 
#3
Alabama
 
#4
Kentucky
 
#5
Oklahoma
 
#6
Other
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 20

Author Topic: What state will have the largest GOP vote margin in 2020?  (Read 738 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,809


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: March 27, 2017, 02:13:12 PM »

2016:
1. Texas: R+807K
2. Tennessee: R+652K
3. Alabama: R+589K
4. Kentucky: R+574K
5. Oklahoma: R+529K

2012:
1. Texas: R+1.26M
2. Tennessee: R+502K
3. Utah: R+489K
4. Alabama: R+460K
5. Oklahoma: R+448K

I would rate it as Likely Texas for now, but repeating 2016 trends would easily make it Tennessee.  Let's hope we're not struggling so much in a key state for us that a 11-EV state is the answer, though!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,809


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2017, 09:06:08 AM »

I didn't think there was much more room for Democratic margins to drop in places like Tennessee and Alabama, but by God Hillary found a way. God, I fear for this country if whites voting 90% R and minorities voting 90% D starts spreading from outside the South (unlikely, I know).

That is only really true in Alabama, Mississippi, and non-Atlanta area Georgia.  Maybe Louisiana too.  Even in Arkansas, Democrats get close to 20% of the white vote.  In Tennessee, it is more like 25 or 30%.  For example, TN-1 is 96% white, suggesting that Republicans should be getting nearly 90% of the vote, which doesn't happen.  If Tennessee whites started voting like Mississippi whites, Republicans would be able to clear 75% of the vote in the state with ease.  Jim Cooper would be good as gone in a ~R+20 district that gave 2/3 of the vote to Trump.  Steve Cohen would be fine in his majority-black district, though.
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,809


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2017, 05:30:37 PM »

I added a poll with the top five from 2016
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