Is this a potential 2040 map? (user search)
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  Is this a potential 2040 map? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is this a potential 2040 map?  (Read 4755 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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« on: December 08, 2016, 06:22:57 PM »

Just tossing this out there:



I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

If we had a realignment that stark, a lot of voters would be switching sides.  What issues do the parties run on?  How would I (presumably) vote?
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,782


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2016, 10:15:16 PM »

Just tossing this out there:



I don't think the trends we've been seeing since the 2000 election will carry on for 40 years. So this is my random guess as to what the next realignment election map will look like by 2040.

If we had a realignment that stark, a lot of voters would be switching sides.  What issues do the parties run on?  How would I (presumably) vote?

1. By 2028/2032 the Berniecrats have transformed the Democratic Party into an FDR "New" New Deal style Party (this I believe to be inevitable, but that's a later thread).
2. The definition of whiteness has expanded to include Hispanics and asians so the republicans no longer struggle with the perceived minority-majority demographic changes of the USA (this I also believe to be inevitable)
3. Republicans embrace Trumpist nationalism and trade protectionism. This wins them the Midwest and they make serious long term inroads in the northeast. However they cut entitlements which angers their southern white base and the Trumpists slowly begin to desert the GOP on traditional social issues.
4. Democratic coalition is now a somewhat shaky combination of African Americans, 50% plus of southern working class whites (voting on economic issues) and millennials/gen Zers who migrated to the sunbelt over time.

Republican issues
1. Trade protectionism (wins them the Midwest) but instead of tariffs, the focus will be on tax breaks and other means of keeping businesses and jobs at home.
2. Low corporate taxes, pro VAT, pro export economy
3. Entitlement reform
4. Socially moderate. Immigration laws are strict. Pro gun control (or moderate)
5. Foreign policy is focused on keeping China contained both economically and militarily. Russia will continue its decline as a superpower.
6. Secular society. Religion is only as important as an individual American wants it to be for themselves personally.

Democratic issues
1. Social welfare and social democracy are the two key issues.
2. Pro animal rights, pro environment.
3. Socially liberal, but pro gun.
4. Strong job training programs and a strong safety net. Pro consumption economy
5. Investments into rural communities and small businesses by taxing large businesses.
6. Isolationist foreign policy.
7. Religion is a private matter but should be encouraged in households.

So what happens to social conservatives?  I don't think I could vote for either of those parties.
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