Looks about right. I'm surprised you caught his strength in Indiana, if he gets 5% nationally, he'll probably easily get 10% in Indiana. In 2012, when he got .99% of the vote nationally, he got slightly over 2% of the vote in Indiana.
I don't really think we can extrapolate from the small universe of hardcore libertarians who voted Johnson in 2012 to his potentially much larger base of support this year. In particular, I think he will do better in the Northeast than you are assuming and not as well in places like Missouri and Indiana that are on the whole very amenable to Trump.
I'd be willing to bet Indiana is one of his top 10 best states in the % of vote received in the state. Also, the Libertarians got 4% in the gubernatorial race that year, which was their 4th best gubernatorial percentage out of all the states that year.
Was that when they had a quasi-celebrity Survivor castaway as their nominee? That could explain some of that.
