Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

Even if you give him solid victories in Indiana and California, he is still about 40 delegates shy of 1237.  The chances of him reaching 1237 pledged delegates before the convention is virtually nonexistent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

[100% pro-life no matter what]

No, it's well under 50% that he will be the nominee.  He would have to have landslide victories in Indiana and California, and the Cruz-Kasich pact will stop that.  Close wins in both of those states wouldn't get him to 1237.  And, there is no way he gets much more than the 17 out of PA, because he is REALLY BAD with delegate ground game.  The same thing could really cost him in West Virginia.

It's not as simple as that. The winner of IN, even with a slim victory, will win the vast majority of delegates there (30 delegates are WTA for the state winner). He'll also still get somewhere in the high 20s for delegates in WV. At least 17 delegates in PA is a given, and it really seems Trump is bringing his act together there delegate ground game wise. He has named delegates in his slate for almost every district, and the ones he named that don't explicitly support him say they will vote for the district winner (in districts which he will probably win). At this point he could win over 30 unbound delegates from PA. CA is also partially WTA by CD, so slight victories could also result in big delegate hauls.

Even if you give him solid victories in Indiana and California, he is still about 40 delegates shy of 1237.  The chances of him reaching 1237 pledged delegates before the convention is virtually nonexistent.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/can-you-get-trump-to-1237/

When you factor in a near sweep on Tuesday, he's only about 30 delegates shy. If the unbound delegates in PA vote as they say they will, and Trump's margins by CD correspond to which delegates are elected, Trump should be able to get close to the 30 needed there (not even taking into account the idea that he could win the loyalties of some other uncommitted delegates out there besides PA).

I have no reason to believe that almost every PA uncommitted delegate will be Cruz/anti-Trump, just like they have been elsewhere.  I bet most of those "I will vote for the winner of my district" delegates are just saying that, but are really anti-Trump.  And, Trump supporters would be the type to vote for Trump and then ignore the delegate stuff.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

He is going to land somewhere near 1,200, so yes.

That makes him the presumptive nominee.

No that wouldn't.  1200 is my rough number where anything below that would make it pretty much impossible to get to 1237.  He would have to be near 1220 before I would be very confident that he would be the nominee, and there is always the chance that the RNC finds a way to stop Trump, who has 1236 pledged delegates (probably through adopting a rule that all unpledged delegates must vote uncommitted on the first ballot).