WI-St. Norbert College/WPR/WPT- Clinton Dominates Trump, Close Race Against Cruz (user search)
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  WI-St. Norbert College/WPR/WPT- Clinton Dominates Trump, Close Race Against Cruz (search mode)
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Author Topic: WI-St. Norbert College/WPR/WPT- Clinton Dominates Trump, Close Race Against Cruz  (Read 2273 times)
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Posts: 11,782


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« on: April 20, 2016, 05:35:41 PM »

For the last time, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not Safe D, and there is no blue wall!!!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,782


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2016, 11:48:53 PM »

For the last time, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not Safe D, and there is no blue wall!!!

Fine, we can call it the "blue barrier", because the "blue barrier" represents states that are either safe D, likely D or leans D. Republicans have basically zero chance in the first 2, and for the leans D states, they have to field a specific kind of candidate that fits those states and has to have both turnout (as in low Democratic turnout, and don't mention the primaries please, their turnout means nothing for the GE) and public opinion in their favor, otherwise the advantage goes to Democrats. Currently Republicans look likely to have none of those things.

Cruz is a terrible fit for anywhere that isn't rural or the south. He's the kind of candidate who, in a much better cycle, would never have even gotten close to the nomination.

The only argument that Democrats have is that we can't win the popular vote (which I don't buy).  Because, if the popular vote is close, the EC can easily go either way.  Many on this forum don't understand PVI!!
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100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,782


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2016, 01:28:51 AM »

For the last time, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are not Safe D, and there is no blue wall!!!

Fine, we can call it the "blue barrier", because the "blue barrier" represents states that are either safe D, likely D or leans D. Republicans have basically zero chance in the first 2, and for the leans D states, they have to field a specific kind of candidate that fits those states and has to have both turnout (as in low Democratic turnout, and don't mention the primaries please, their turnout means nothing for the GE) and public opinion in their favor, otherwise the advantage goes to Democrats. Currently Republicans look likely to have none of those things.

Cruz is a terrible fit for anywhere that isn't rural or the south. He's the kind of candidate who, in a much better cycle, would never have even gotten close to the nomination.

The only argument that Democrats have is that we can't win the popular vote (which I don't buy).  Because, if the popular vote is close, the EC can easily go either way.  Many on this forum don't understand PVI!!

For someone who constantly brings up PVI, you should realize that Wisconsin's PVI is D+2, meaning that a Republican would probably have to win the PV by about 4% to have a good chance of winning Wisconsin.

I know that, but if people think R+2 Florida is a swing state, they have to say the same about D+2 Wisconsin.
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