Nyvin
Junior Chimp
Posts: 7,737
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« on: April 11, 2024, 09:42:33 PM » |
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2016 and 2020 had near identical percentages around the state in the presidential race (maybe not Dane so much), it's just the amount of turnout increased from 2016 to 2020.
I think this is mostly because both races had Trump and this year's election will also have Trump. People in Wisconsin already know how they feel about Trump now, so there won't be any massive swing like from 2012 to 2016. The rural counties aren't going to jump 10 points to the right or anything, just like they didn't in 2020.
Vernon County is a good example of this, in 2012 Obama won Vernon by almost 15%, in 2016 Trump won it by about 5%, in 2020 he won it by about 4.5%. Evers actually won it by 1.5% in 2022 if that matters.
The bottom line is it's just not realistic to see massive rural swings again with the same person at the top of the ballot. It really would need a new candidate with a new agenda or something for that to happen.
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