GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Nyvin]

Walker honestly seems like a worse candidate than Oz to me.  I guess Oz is just getting more negative publicity or something?

[Nyvin]

Walker is such a trash, awful candidate.   It's going to be horrible if he wins.   Warnock isn't perfect either but Walker is a whole different level of terrible.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/MEPFuller/status/1577827464889393152?s=20&t=g3HBWz8ObJTy...

At this point he's practically better off just admitting he's a hypocrite and still opposes abortion.

[Nyvin]

Sorry for the double post, but God, this is heartbreaking.

That's really sad.   The GA Dems can't put it out in their messaging due to the impact on the kid, but it'll probably travel enough on it's own.

Walker is a terrible person, there's no excuse.

[Nyvin]

Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

10% seems high, I'd say the max is somewhere around 5-7%.

The Republican's floor in Georgia is still absolutely rock solid.

[Nyvin]

Geez, maybe Warnock+10 isn't so crazy afterall.

[Nyvin]

Nate Cohen is saying he expects Warnock to win but by only 1%

Seems about right,  Warnock is losing a tiny bit in the rurals but gaining in the metro.

[Nyvin]

I find it hilarious that right wing twitter is harping about GA runoffs now

Don't they realize that without the runoff Warnock would already be senator-elect now?

[Nyvin]

Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Not really, it's within ~1.5% of Nov results in pretty much every county that's almost fully in except for two that I can see.

That's actually good for Warnock since it's Walker that needs to improve his numbers to win.

[Nyvin]

Speaking of rurals being static - Treutlen County almost all in, 70.5-29.1 Walker in Nov, 70.7-29.3 Walker now.   

[Nyvin]

Looks like a huge bunch of southern rurals just dumped a bunch all at once in the last 5-10 minutes.

[Nyvin]

Richmond County (Augusta) is almost all in and it's about a 3% improvement from Nov for Warnock.

[Nyvin]

Fulton has been at 55% reporting forever

[Nyvin]

Ugh...Walker in the lead again?  Come on, get over that part already.

[Nyvin]

Southern Georgia is almost all in except for tiny Dodge County at 6%.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/KamalaHarris/status/1600336669244268544

Four elections in two years,  the man definitely earned the seat.

[Nyvin]

After tonights Performance JON OSSOFF for me is a sure GONER in 2026 regardless if it's a Biden or Republican Midterm bcuz he won't be able to replicate the Warnock Coalition from 2021 and 2022.

You sound like a well-paid, high-ranking GOP strategist

Was gonna say, Warnock’s metro margins in 2022 will probably be a worse case scenario for Ossoff come 2026 based on migration change alone LOL

LOL, are you kidding me! Ossoff ain't going to squeeze off anymore Votes out of Cobb, Gwinnett, Fulton, DeKalb, etc. Tonight was pretty much worse case scenario in GA for R's unless Trump is the Nominee. If Kemp, Chris Carr, Burt Jones or Geoff Duncan run for Senate in 2026 they will post better Numbers.

The only reason Warnock did better than Ossof (barely) was because Loeffler was a joke and Purdue was generic R.

Literally look at the county maps - All three are the same as far as D/R - Ossof runoff, Warnock 2020 runoff, and Warnock 2022 runoff are all identical.  Georgia is just extremely polarized with very few true independent voters.

[Nyvin]

Warnock at 2.4% margin,  can he get the last 0.5% and make 2016's day?

[Nyvin]

The New York Times ("The Needle" page) is still estimating a +2.9 margin of victory for Warnock (when it's all counted and done for), even though his margin is currently showing +1.7.

Seems there are still many votes to be counted in large, high-Dem counties/jurisdictions.

The Needle is crap with that Estimation.
How does Warnock get a 2.9 margin if only 46,000 Votes are left Statewide per NBC!

Cause they are in DeKalb lol. And there's likely more than that. Are you this ignorant?

User 2016 ...
Just over the last 45 minutes or so, the margin has been updated and is now at +2.4
So 2.9 is almost there.

Edit to add:  2.9 is an estimate. The NY Times page has updated the number to 2.8
But it any case it will probably fall some where between 2.4 and 2.9 when it is all counted.

Almost all of the Votes are IN now. NBC just like I did estimates that 17,000 Ballots are remaining Statewide. How does Warnock get to 2.9, tell me? He would need another 50K Votes to get there.

He's at 2.8 now.   

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1600599089196195841

GA-10 was Trump + 23.4 so that’s a pretty heavy swing, perhaps due to some black spillover in south Atlanta? It’d be funny if that’s the seat Rs need to end up being most worried about in GA.

6 and 11 look like they will almost certainly be in play by the end of the decade. Even if Republicans control redistricting again after 2030, it’s hard to see them not conceding Dems another seat in this general area.

I wonder if/when the Georgia GOP starts pushing for a commission.

Under the current legislative maps, I don’t see Dems getting control of the state senate in any situation.  So at worst, we would be looking at fair maps for the 2030s.  Maybe Republicans agree to a commission sometime in the 2030s when they have nothing to lose.

It’s a tough carry but not impossible. Biden won 23 seats and the only only of those that seems remotely likely to be a liability is Albany based SD-12. Trump + 3 SD-48 in Gwinnett and Forsyth counties seems like it’s on narrowed time. You also have the 3 Trump + 10 northern Cobb districts. The final seat is the hardest, but 17, 45, and 46 may be doable.

The TX state she is truly impossible to see Dems cracking this decade cause Rs were actually able to stretch districts far out of the suburbs into the rurals. That isn’t the case in GA.

It also helps that the GA Senate terms are 2 years, meaning the whole chamber is always up for election each cycle, while in TX the Senate has 4 year terms, lessening the vulnerability of the incumbents through the decade.

I think by 2030 the GA Senate could be competitive, but it'd probably be a 28-28 split and come down to LG tiebreaker (if Dems have any chance at all anyway).  A lot of those north metro districts are trending pretty fast.