2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Michigan

[Nyvin]

If this is legit - It seems like the commission is going forward with the Flint+Thumb configuration.   Also Ann Arbor is separated from the Detroit districts.   Lansing almost certainly gets it's own district too.  

The "West" region is kinda vague on what will happen there though.

Looks like Kildee is screwed.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1423374855324454913

Edit - It's on their website under the August 5th meeting notes, so I guess it's real.

https://www.michigan.gov/micrc/0,10083,7-418-106525---,00.html

[Nyvin]

MI-6 (southwest Kalamazoo area) likely loses Allegan county based on this, which is heavily conservative. 

It will probably be fine for the GOP in 2022, but in 2024 onward it could become a swing district, particularly if Fred Upton retires.

[Nyvin]

Here's what I came up with -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/4ab8ca07-c90a-48cc-9910-c1f6905b8a6e





Northeast and East Central actually make a near perfect district but then the map ends up in a weird spot with Northwest going south and crunching West and Southwest.  

I opted to combine the northern three into MI-1 and give the slight excess to East Central.  

Giving the South Central region Livingston is a no-brainer really, all you need then is some of Jackson and it's good.

I didn't bother with the five Detroit districts, don't see much point.   Two VRA seats, Oakland and Macomb seats, and then a remainder of Wayne (maybe part of Oakland, depending) for the fifth, the end.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/SpareBostonian/status/1424520474327924744

I don't think this means much.   The lawyers would basically play the role of saying what's allowed and not allowed when they draw the map, but that wouldn't be the final say on what's allowed to be drawn.

[Nyvin]

Using the regions the commission posted it's possible to make 2 northern districts using whole counties and keep most of the regions together, just have to give Kalkaska to Northeast/East Central.

It pushes the Ottawa district south which is part of the southwest region, but the map still looks fine.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1ebc24d-66b3-4e54-8f55-66480b747c95

It's possible to inch the two VRA district's BVAP up to 50%, but it probably requires municipality splits.

[Nyvin]

Using the regions the commission posted it's possible to make 2 northern districts using whole counties and keep most of the regions together, just have to give Kalkaska to Northeast/East Central.

It pushes the Ottawa district south which is part of the southwest region, but the map still looks fine.  



https://davesredistricting.org/join/f1ebc24d-66b3-4e54-8f55-66480b747c95

It's possible to inch the two VRA district's BVAP up to 50%, but it probably requires municipality splits.

A few questions here:

Would Debbie Dingell run in the Western Wayne district or the Washtenaw-based district here?

What happens to the Oakland County reps (Stevens, Slotkin, Levin, Lawrence)? They all live in Oakland but there's only two seats in the county.

No idea about Dingell.

It's possible to add a third district to Oakland.  I don't think the commission is going to add multiple county splits just to satisfy incumbents though,  most likely only 1 non-detroit metro district goes into the Detroit Metro region to equalize population IMO.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b65dc7f6-204b-414f-8204-4541a260e549

[Nyvin]

Here's an interesting way to do it, whole counties everywhere except what South Central region needs to fill in the population, along with the Detroit Metro obviously.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/ace0f20b-59cc-44e3-b098-0c5ef18646e9

[Nyvin]

The House map will go from 2 safe D districts in Kent to 4,  with an additional competitive seat after that.

[Nyvin]

Eid proposes an all-around better map, though I personally never like Ottawa-Grand Rapids.

This is a much better map.   I think even Republicans would like the 6, 7, 8 configuration better really.

[Nyvin]

So the four proposals that the commission released yesterday all look like total nightmares

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-2022-maps/michigan/first_proposal/

Map 4 isn't even contiguous, I don't know why they even put that out.

The other three might as well have been drawn by the Republican legislature (especially the first).  

They all pack Ann Arbor with the Detroit suburbs, put Levin in an unwinnable seat, most likely doom Kildee (although that's expected anyway), and give all the R incumbents safe seats (even Upton) except Meijer, whose in the Grand Rapids district.

The median seat in all three workable maps is at least R+5.3, where Biden won the state by 2.78%.  

If they pass the first map, Michigan could very well end up with a 9R-4D delegation in 2023.

Why are the worst maps of this cycle coming from two Ind Commission states (Michigan and Colorado)?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1457535235139244034?t=Oj2vnnHLBpSMw08fAZ1e...

I'm surprised the Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo district made it.  The other two maps are pretty normal really.  

They made Kildee's seat Biden+2 and the Lansing district close to 50/50 in all three maps.

The Birch map is probably the best for Democrats long-term as Grand Rapids and Upton's district are both trending D overall, so potentially up to 9 districts total.  For 2022 the best map for D's is the Grand Rapids-Kalamazoo "Apple" map.

I would have to imagine the MIGOP is rooting for the Chestnut map.

[Nyvin]

Chestnut kinda sucks for Andy Levin in MI-10, but other than that all the rest of the competitive districts are a bit better for Democrats than Birch, except MI-3 (Kent County) which is WAY better for Democrats.

[Nyvin]

Unfathomably based. Michigan has had the best redistricting process in the country and I don't think it's particularly close.

It's without a doubt one of the best commissions this decade.

[Nyvin]

Would the main partisan impact of this be taking the black majority areas out of SD-11 and SD-12?  I can't really see anything else on the map that would change in any meaningful way. 

They can make either SD-1 or SD-2 closer to black majority at the expense of the other, but that doesn't really change either away from Safe D (not even close really).

[Nyvin]

Would the main partisan impact of this be taking the black majority areas out of SD-11 and SD-12?  I can't really see anything else on the map that would change in any meaningful way. 

They can make either SD-1 or SD-2 closer to black majority at the expense of the other, but that doesn't really change either away from Safe D (not even close really).

No, the black areas are very small portions of SD-11 and SD-12. It’s likely they touch districts like 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 10 more, all of which have large black areas yet none are black majority.

I can't see any of the those districts in/around Detroit becoming competitive (even Likely D level) with any kind of changes. 

The most they could do is make a district in the southeastern part of Oakland County to make the remaining districts have larger black populations, but that new district would still have voted for Biden by around ~25%.

If they leave 11 and 12 alone, the overall partisan impact of striking down the map will be absolutely minimal.

[Nyvin]

It'll be interesting to see how SD-11 is changed.  It seems they want that southern little chunk taken out of it to increase the black population in neighboring districts (probably 10?).  

It'll become more R no matter what (it's losing most of the black population), but by how much is the real question.   If they just expand it north it probably becomes borderline safe R, if it just swaps territory with 10 it might stay at around Lean R or so.