Colorado 2020 U.S. House Redistricting Discussion

[Nyvin]

I remember posting in a thread about this a while ago - I can't seem to find it though.  

Anyway - I'm 99% certain the hispanic opportunity seat will win out in the commission over keeping Denver whole.  

Beyond that,  it's actually pretty beneficial to try to keep CO-6 somewhat close to it's current configuration.   It helps with the hispanic seat quite a bit,  I got the hispanic percentage all the way up to 46.9%.

Making a 5D-3R map isn't too difficult,  especially with the Denver/Boulder trends.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/a95c0709-a8ce-4658-b848-af17f59a989c

I made this map loosely based on 2018 pop estimates at the county level.

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/0e67ae47-147a-43bf-af1a-112973325418
4D-2C-2R map
Gives both sides something they'd want.  Majority-minority Denver seat and 2 other suburban seats have areas of Denver that make them safe D.  Boulder+Fort Collins seat safe D.  CO Springs and Eastern CO seats are safe R, and competitive seats in western CO and the southern suburbs of Denver.

Firstly, given it's an independent commission it doesn't matter what both sides want. Secondly, given Colorado has a Democratic trifecta, why would the Republicans ever get anything they want in redistricting? Thirdly, your "competitive" seats are R+7 (6th) and R+9 (5th) so really you've just drawn a 4-4 map, or a light Republican gerrymander.

It's a bipartisan commission.  Also, PVI doesn't determine whether a district is competitive.  The western CO area is swingy and McCain only won it by 2.  Also the suburban seat is competitive in the post Trump area.  The map would either produce a 4D 4R map or a 5D 3R map in a decent dem year.  Given the political geography of CO, with dems being hyper concentrated in Denver and Boulder, a truly fair map would have only 2 safe dem seats and 2 lean/likely dem in the suburbs.  However by cracking Denver I drew 3 safe D and 1 likely D seat.  The other 4 are 2 safe R and 2 lean R.  On average Dems win maybe 4.5/8 seats if you look at how the state voted the past decade.  Very fair. 

That map would pretty much always produce a 4D-4R delegation,  except maybe by around 2026 or 2028 the Douglas seat could be competitive since it also has southern Arapahoe.     

There's no way for Democrats to realistically win the western seat.  Not happening.

[Nyvin]

With 2018 numbers it's now possible to make a outright Hispanic majority seat.   With the actual Census numbers this only bound to become easier.

Think there's a good chance of one being drawn?   Seems kinda morally wrong not to give them a seat.





https://davesredistricting.org/join/aed9a6ec-f7b5-4175-9731-5602be5c1f09

[Nyvin]

And CO isn't required to do so. Whites in Colorado aren't uniformly opposed to electing a Hispanic candidate, so it would just be pure packing of minorities to dilute Democratic voting strength to create a Hispanic VRA seat there.

It doesnt really dilute Democratic voting strength, unless you're making tentacle districts out of Denver

[Nyvin]

Why wouldn't you pair Jefferson with (most of the remainder of) Douglas as the leftover suburban counties? 

Because if you don't use Douglas, where else do you get the rest of the population for the eastern farmland district?

[Nyvin]

What's wrong with putting Pueblo and other parts of southern Colorado in there in place of Douglas?  The ski areas can go with western Colorado.  

I hate it, but it works.   The ski areas have way more in common with the Denver metro than they do with the western rural (let alone Pueblo).   But if the CO Dems want that big giant rural district out there they can do that.

[Nyvin]

I'm pretty confident the eastern 2/3rd's of Adams and Arapaho belong with the eastern farmlands district.   The area has pretty much nothing in common with the Denver Metro at all.   Not that it makes much difference partisan-wise, but including them just for the sake of less county splits seems to ignore the realities of the people living in those areas.

[Nyvin]

Douglas County belongs with the rurals in eastern Colorado.

Not the Highlands Ranch and Stonegate/Parker areas in the north, that's literally part of Denver suburbia.

The southern 4/5th's of the county, sure.

[Nyvin]

I'd like to note to everyone that there's empty mountains, rivers, lakes, parks, and reservoirs between Douglas and Jefferson counties, it's not like they're all that cohesive with each other.

I think I only count two roads directly connecting them, both with bridges at the border.

[Nyvin]

Best way to handle Denver metro IMO is making the hispanic opportunity seat, pairing the rest of Denver with western Arapahoe, and Aurora with Douglas.   



https://davesredistricting.org/join/d714a51f-5edf-441b-8c54-a4ae62a87bee

[Nyvin]

I'm not seeing why Crow moving "to" Centennial is an indication of anything, usually incumbents make moves to get into safer districts not more competitive ones, especially when literally no one knows what the map will actually look like.  Who knows I guess.

Also, all of Douglas and Arapahoe minus Aurora isn't quite enough for a district.

Splitting Aurora does wonders for the flexibility for the rest of the map though IMO -







https://davesredistricting.org/join/efa12a45-4030-46f4-b9b9-f10ce8a87840

2020 Pres Results (feel free to check my work on this):

CO-1   
79.91%   17.82%
   
CO-2   
55.40%   41.69%
   
CO-3   
55.15%   42.63%
   
CO-4   
36.43%     61.12%
   
CO-5   
42.99%   53.33%
   
CO-6   
59.71%   37.45%
   
CO-7   
58.14%   39.10%
   
CO-8   
56.54%   40.88%

[Nyvin]

So I was reading some of the comments on the public input forum here -

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/public_comments

Seems like a lot of comments (a majority?) focus on a few issues:

1. Routt and Grand counties get mentioned a lot (especially Grand county for whatever reason), mostly that they don't want to be part of the Front Range districts.  

2. Ski Resort communities wanting to be kept together (also a lot of mentions about not being put in districts with the Front Range area, but mostly they want to be kept intact).

3. Hispanic areas in the south, including Pueblo, being kept intact to maximize hispanic influence

4. El Paso being kept intact, but also there's an active group on the board "True Southern Colorado" that wants El Paso split north/south with other counties to form two districts.

5. A few mentions of keeping the city of Aurora intact

6. Virtually nothing about Denver aside from "keep us out of that district!" lol

edit - forgot this one - 7. Lots of people from Longmont want to be in the district with Boulder and the rest of Larimer (not the eastern farmland district in other words)

[Nyvin]

I doubt Boebert's district really changes much partisan-wise, if at all.   The bigger question IMO is where the new CO-8 district ends up.

[Nyvin]

I made a Colorado map.


The Population Deviation is 0.03%, and it reflects 2019 ACS Data.
The map above shows results from the 2018 Colorado Gubernatorial election.

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Colorado: 4D to 4R

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado: 4D to 4R

2018 Colorado Attorney General Election: 4D to 4R

2018 Colorado Gubernatorial Election: 4D to 4R

2020 U.S. Presidential Election in Colorado (rough estimate): 5D or 6D to 3R or 2R

CO-4 (the pale Republican one close to Denver) probably flipped.
Maybe CO-1 (the large Western district) flipped as well but I'm not so sure.


Opinions?

5 and 7's cuts into Jefferson seem pointless, any real reason for them both?  You can just push 8 more into Douglas and remove 5 and 7 from Jefferson entirely.

[Nyvin]

Looks like 5D-3R

Jefferson district might be close I guess.

[Nyvin]

How much of Boulder is in CO-3? Hard to tell with this map. Off top of my head it looks 5-3 but I need to know more about Boulder. The writing obscures it a bit.

The CO-3 looks like it's safe enough for Boebert

[Nyvin]

Almost all the Douglas portion of CO-7 is in Highlands Ranch, which is zooming left.   

CO-7 seems like a real heavy lift for R's, but not totally impossible.   Likely D IMO

[Nyvin]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

Also - Looks like CO-7 is actually going to be the open seat next cycle?

[Nyvin]

Given trends the GOP might have to worry more about 5 than 3 later on. 5 is Dem trending but might not be competitive until 2028.

Agreed - CO-5 could easily be competitive by 2026 or 2028,  that was pretty much inevitable in any map.

Also - Looks like CO-7 is actually going to be the open seat next cycle?

In theory, yes; CO-08 is more similar to Perlmutter's current seat than CO-07. But I am interested to see which one he runs in. CO-08 is 30% Hispanic and was apparently designed to help elect a Hispanic member from CO. I assume Perlmutter will want to run in the less competitive seat (08), but he could selflessly decide to run in 07 (opening up 08 to elect a Hispanic member, and putting a "strong incumbent" - himself - in the more competitive seat)

This would be ideal for Democrats both ways - boost hispanic turnout in CO-8 possibly and have the incumbent in the more competitive CO-7 district.

[Nyvin]

Can anyone explain why it's necessary for the 4th to come in between the 1st and 8th? Seems odd.

Looks like they used I-76 for the boundary of CO-8 and Denver as boundary for CO-1, and CO-4 got whatever was inbetween.

[Nyvin]

Gotta say, they nailed all seven of these (even the Aurora one).   Looks like the commentary on the website HEAVILY influenced the map making.

So I was reading some of the comments on the public input forum here -

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/public_comments

Seems like a lot of comments (a majority?) focus on a few issues:

1. Routt and Grand counties get mentioned a lot (especially Grand county for whatever reason), mostly that they don't want to be part of the Front Range districts. 

2. Ski Resort communities wanting to be kept together (also a lot of mentions about not being put in districts with the Front Range area, but mostly they want to be kept intact).

3. Hispanic areas in the south, including Pueblo, being kept intact to maximize hispanic influence

4. El Paso being kept intact, but also there's an active group on the board "True Southern Colorado" that wants El Paso split north/south with other counties to form two districts.

5. A few mentions of keeping the city of Aurora intact

6. Virtually nothing about Denver aside from "keep us out of that district!" lol

edit - forgot this one - 7. Lots of people from Longmont want to be in the district with Boulder and the rest of Larimer (not the eastern farmland district in other words)

[Nyvin]

Does anybody else think that CO-3 could potentially become competitive down the line considering trends in Western Colorado?

After all, CO-3 only was won by Trump with a margin of 7%, but if you look at this map, you'll see that Western Colorado massively trended D from 2016 to 2020 on the presidential level. If these trends continue, I'd think that this could make Boebert (who is notoriously extreme) vulnerable in her own district, no?

If things go bad for the GOP in CO then this map could produce a 7D-1R delegation by mid decade.

[Nyvin]

This is funny, the public comments on the CO website are now getting flooded with people complaining about moving Pueblo to CO-4.   The thing is they all say almost the exact same sentence -

"I recently heard talk of redrawing the third district, excluding Pueblo county and replacing it with Boulder, and/or Summit and Eagle counties."  

It seems some GOP group sent out a mailer or something to put comments on the website about this.

https://redistricting.colorado.gov/public_comments?page=1

[Nyvin]

I'd like to know the numbers for SD-12 and SD-13 for 2020 (El Paso),  kinda looks like 13 is a dem seat but 12 could be competitive in the near future?

[Nyvin]

So do the incumbents stay in the numbered districts they're in now if they're not up for election until 2024 or do they move to the district they're geographically located in now and run in that seat?

Example being Jim Smallwood (R) being in SD-4 currently represents south east Douglas, but in the preliminary map SD-4 is moved to be the Ft Collins district which is obviously safe D.  

Another one is Pete Lee (D) has SD-11 currently in downtown Colorado Springs, but the district is moved to the western side of El Paso,  but he could challenge John Cooke (R) in SD-13 which covers more of his current district.

There's a lot of stuff like this all over the map.  An R will hold SD-25 until 2024, and that's the northeastern Denver district (same for the western Aurora district, SD-23, held by an R until 2024).

There's really not much of the same going on to advantage the D's in 2022.   It's looking like the Senate chamber is going to be competitive next year just by the numbering of the districts alone.

Edit - I guess the D's hold SD-14 (northern Colorado Springs) until 2024.