2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Louisiana

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/772fdfb1-c5d8-4211-b1a2-5de05e2a90cf

Tried making a sane map with two D seats.

Louisiana is roughly 32% AA so two out of six districts (33%) being able to elect AA's candidates of choice is a reasonable argument to make in court.

[Nyvin]

The current map is a total mess, LA-1 uses water continuity to connect to the southeast and LA-6 is about as non-compact as you can get.


If LA-2 is allowed to go to like ~49.5 BVAP it's pretty easy to make a second black seat,  the LA-5 in this map actually isn't all that much changed from the current one other than going into Baton Rouge.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/cdc7e216-2e8b-4095-ba10-dd0d45a98e54

[Nyvin]

Does the Alabama case mean there will also be 2 black districts in LA?

[Nyvin]

It's possible to draw the Baton Rouge district as 50% black without going up into northern Louisiana.  It just requires lots of little arms into counties to grab the black majority towns and cities.

Both the Baton Rouge and New Orleans districts are black majority in this -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b8b6e650-2869-4e66-9380-bfdad37436b6

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[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/tekken_guy/status/1667326977882177541

It’s possible to make a Black-majority LA-05 as close as Biden+4. Cassidy won this seat and someone like Letlow can pull a Gerald Greene and hold it as long as she wants.

Maps like this are put up a lot by DRA users on twitter and atlas on how to "cheat" the VRA ruling, but pretty much never pass through the court and become reality.

The whole point of a VRA section 2 district is that the voters of the minority race can reliably elect the candidate of their choice, especially if the opposition bloc votes against the minority race, which is definitely the case in Louisiana and Alabama.

The lawyers know this, the courts know this, the politicians know this, it just won't happen.

[Nyvin]

The stay is lifted, but that leaves the issue of whether a second black CD needs to be drawn. if the lower court orders something, it might go back up.

The three judge panel already ordered a second black district I thought?

[Nyvin]

Won't the LA legislature just do the same thing they did in AL where they keep stalling by submitting maps that clearly don't meet the standard?

Federal courts are only required to turn over authority to redraw the map back to the state legislature a single time.   

If the legislature fails to comply with the court order the court can give them another chance but they're not obligated to and usually don't bother.

Example being Alabama Republicans only submitting a single map before the court appointed the special master.

[Nyvin]

Republicans are once again banking on Kavanaugh declaring "Racism is Over in America!" to save their map.

It ain't happening.

[Nyvin]

So is this it or will there be more maps?  LA-6 is Biden+14.5%,  should be fine with the courts, surprisingly.

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1746984181370953989

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5f0a24c8-45d1-4be7-9c76-cc99cfa53292

[Nyvin]

The Shreveport-BR district wouldn't be as effective as electing Cleo Fields in the D primary since it takes out a big chunk of Baton Rouge, which is his base. Also the Shreveport D's could conceivably get their candidate to be competitive in the primary too possibly (Baton Rouge would still be favored though).

In the first map the rest of the Dem vote outside of Baton Rouge is scattered so no other local parties could really compete with Fields.

[Nyvin]

The LA-6 on the Womack map is Biden+19.3%.   That's gotta be at least close to the most Democratic congressional district that can be drawn in Louisiana that doesn't include New Orleans and is an at least somewhat sane map

[Nyvin]

All 11 Senate Democrats voted against the map, lol, why?  From a purely partisan perspective it really doesn't get much better than that map.  Are they trying to defend Graves or something?

[Nyvin]

What a sloppy, hideous map.   

[Nyvin]

https://www.npr.org/2024/04/30/1247555372/louisiana-congressional-redistricting

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1785440509059633227

So the deadline for any congressional map to be used this year is May 15th, almost exactly two weeks.  The Shreveport-Baton Rouge map is struck down.  What gets used then?  The court couldn't possibly go back to the originally passed map that was struck down...could it?

[Nyvin]

The LA Republicans main objective with the map was to protect Letlow and screw Graves.   Assuming that two black majority districts are still needed (pretty sure they are), then the plaintiff's map that made Letlow's district the other black majority one will probably end up being used since it's way more compact and tidy.  So that ruins what they were going for originally.

The Shreveport-BR map was always a trainwreck anyway honestly.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1786233916828852571

I agree with them, the legislature already had it's shot.

[Nyvin]

This kinda leads to an awkward position for the LAGOP.  In 2024 Graves will be forced out but then in 2026, most likely, Letlow is given a much less favorable district for the Republican Primary.