2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Nyvin]

Peterson only got $23K from individuals this quarter compared to Fischbach who got $81K in donations from individuals.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1184234312083873792

Peterson is probably doomed at this point. He should retire, to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

I wouldn't mind if he retires really.   Not a big deal.

[Nyvin]

Peterson only got $23K from individuals this quarter compared to Fischbach who got $81K in donations from individuals.

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1184234312083873792

Peterson is probably doomed at this point. He should retire, to avoid an embarrassing defeat.

I wouldn't mind if he retires really.   Not a big deal.

It WILL be a big deal when you will compare his voting record with those of his likely successor (Republican). And if it will not - then i will doubt your political expertize..

Even if Republicans win this seat next year it'll be a one term rental.   The district is practically doomed to be carved up in redistricting anyway.

Peterson did great to hold a seat this R for as long as he did.   There's other, better targets for the Democrats to go after than defending MN-7.  

If Peterson is gone as of Jan 2021 it's really not a big deal.

[Nyvin]

Really seems like election prognosticators hand out the "Likely D/R" rating very generously,  while going from Tilt/Lean D/R to tossup is quite restricted.

[Nyvin]

Now that the NC map appears somewhat final, Dems have begun to scope out the new safe seats. Deborah Ross, former Wake state legislator and 2016 Senate candidate has entered NC02. Kathy Manning who ran a competitive campaign for NC13 in 2018 has filed for the new NC06.

Hopefully a solid Democratic candidate emerges for NC-8, as it's the most competitive (53.2% Trump, 44.1% Clinton in 2016) of the 8 Republican seats in the new map.

It's still safe R. Meadows won't lose - pretty much the only non "Trump forever" voters in the district are in Asheville.

NC-8 is Carbarus to Cumberland

[Nyvin]

so is the current thinking that Republicans might win back some of the low hanging fruit like Horn, Brindisi, Van Drew, etc. but that Democrats are certain to win 2 districts in North Carolina + a couple in Texas, Georgia, etc., so 2020 will be a wash and Democrats will maintain a sizable majority in the House?

Something along those lines seems to be shaping up.   A good indicator is all the Republican retirements.

[Nyvin]

Tbh I’m not convinced that each dollar matters as much as the next. Obviously it’s nice to have a COH advantage but how much do a few extra ad buys really get you? I’d much rather be ahead like 4 million to 1 million than 20 to 10, even though the raw gap in the latter two numbers is larger.

I wonder if anyone has done a study on this, or on the efficacy of spending in politics in general.

Money in a campaign does reach a saturation level at some point,  there was a study on it somewhere, but can't remember it.   

[Nyvin]

WinRed is a rip off -

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1219032649383079936

#MN05 GOP candidate Lacy Johnson's $240,750 in Q4 expenditures, @WinRED
 ate up over $101,000 in credit card fees.

[Nyvin]

Collins has dropped out of the Dem Primary for MT-Sen,   Bullock has the field pretty much cleared now for nomination.

[Nyvin]

MN-07 should be up near the top and TX-07 replaces entirely with IA-02. CA-21 shouldn’t be in the top 20, and instead PA-01 or TX-10/21/31

PA-01 is a question mark. The one recruit who had promise dropped out, so now who knows who the winner of the primary will be, we'll have to see how much $$ they raise too bc right now it's not looking good for the Dems. It's a presidential year though so that could help offset Fitz's advantage

Scott Wallace was one of the single worst disaster artist candidates in 2018 and he still nearly won. Since as of now the GCB indicates 2020 to be as Democratic friendly as 2018, that seat would be in my Top 20 for that reason alone.

It’s hard to believe that 2020 will be as lopsided a house vote as 2018. Even going off of the GCB at this point in the 2018 cycle Dems generally had double digit leads. Still, top 20 seems reasonable even with the big recruiting question mark for Dems there.

I think 2020 is looking to be "worse" for Republicans than 2018.

[Nyvin]

Cook moves CA-25 from Lean D to Tossup:

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1248614779112939527?s=20

Should be noted this is the special election, not the general in November.

[Nyvin]

I found it kinda interesting the independent in Alaska has more cash on hand and outraised Don Young.