The GOP's suburbia problem

[Nyvin]

With the GOP losing suburbs and gaining in rural areas...they also run the risk of "self packing" their votes in fewer and fewer districts for state leg and congressional elections.    Kind of an inverse of what happened to the Democrats for most of the past decade with big urban areas.

[Nyvin]

For starters, MI, WI, PA, MN, and OH will all either be lean or strong R by then. The major cities are losing population and rural areas are growing. Do the math.

False.

Ann Arbor, Lansing, Grand Rapids, Madison, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, and Columbus are all the state's primary growth hubs.   Lots of rural areas in those states are in decline (a majority are).  

The only three big cities in those states doing poorly are Detroit, Milwaukee, and Cleveland.

[Nyvin]

1. Suburbs are becoming more urban, exurbs are becoming suburbs. See Atlanta and Dallas.
2. Suburbs will trend back R with a non-Trump.

Like they did in the VA HoD?