Sabato: Governors 2017-2018: The Democrats' Complicated Path to Big Gains

[Nyvin]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

[Nyvin]

MI, CT, and ME should all be lean D. I'm still a little unsure about NM.

OK, AZ, TN, and GA should all be safe R.

OR should be safe D.

I'm also personally leaning towards MD being likely R.

Why in the world would AZ be safe R?   That's nuts.

GA probably isn't realistic to call safe R either.

Ducey is pretty strong, and it doesn't seem like he'll attract a powerful opponent.  Deal is also very popular, and I just don't see Democrats winning the governorship.

Ducey's approvals are in the mid forties last I saw.   He's not a very strong incumbent in a state Trump won by 3.5%.    You don't need Chris Christie level ratings to lose a governor seat.

Deal is term limited so he's not even in the equation for 2018.